Formato - Assolombarda

Global Pharmaceutical Perspective
Daniel VIAL
Vicepresidente
IMS Europe
Milano - 21 settembre 2007
Global pharmaceutical sales
643 billions US$ in 06
Total world market
16%
Growth over previous year
600
14%
500
12%
400
10%
8%
300
6%
200
4%
100
2%
0
0%
1999
In billions USD
Total World market
% Constant US $ growth
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
334
362
387
427
498
559
601
643
14.5
11.7
11.8
10.6
10.4
8.0
6.8
7.0
Source: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis International, Feb 2007
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
2
2006: market dynamic is different according
to the region
Europe
Size: $ 182 bn
North America
Size: $ 290 bn
% Growth: 4.8%
Japan
Size: $ 57 bn
% Growth: 8%
% Growth: -0.7%
Asia/Africa/Australia
Latin America
Size: $ 52 bn
Size:$ 27.5 bn
% Growth: 9.8%
% Growth: 12.9%
Source: IMS Health - Global Pharma Forecasts, March 2007
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
3
2006: within the region, market dynamic is
different according to the country
+2.3%
Italy
+0.5%
15.3 bn $
France
Germany
28.5 bn $
+4%
+2.6%
Top 5 Europe
98.3 bn $
26.3 bn $
+ 6.3%
+3.1%
Spain
UK
11.9 bn $
16.3 bn $
Source : IMS Health – MIDAS – Retail market
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
4
* : Constant dollar
Contribution to growth
Emerging market contribute to 27% of the total growth
2001
+25.5 Billions US $
-1
Japan
4
2006
+42.4 Billions US $
8
8
Rest of the world
27
Emerging markets
13
16
Europe
29
50
US
-10
46
0
10
20
30
% CONTRIBUTION
Source: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis International, Feb 2007
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
5
40
50
60
Number of Global Blockbusters
Number of Blockbusters
For the first time, “specialist driven” drugs represent half of the
blockbusters
105
110
Specialist driven
100
Primary care driven
90
49%
80
70
60
50
44
40
25%
51%
30
20
75%
10
0
2000
2002
2004
Source: IMS Health, MIDAS, MAT Dec 2006, Market Insights Team research
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
6
2006
Protection status in 5 key markets
100%
90%
% Market Share US $
80%
70%
11
14
4
12
17
6
-22
-28
7
10
-9
-15
60%
50%
40%
14
11
7
-2
12
-22
-20
15
9
30%
16
11
13
20%
10%
0%
Total 5
markets
US
In-Patent
Italy
France
Off-Patent
Source: IMS Health, MIDAS, New Market Segmentation, RX only, MAT Dec 2006
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
7
Generics
Germany
Other
UK
Italian retail market: reimbursable drugs
Since the 2nd semester 06, a regular decrease of the growth
for the units and a negative growth in value*
15,0
10,0
10.3%
% growth
5,0
5.9%
4.7%
2.7%
0,0
06
20
H
1
06
20
H
2
- 3.4%
07
20
H
1
-9%
-5,0
-10,0
% vs previous (Units)
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
8
% vs. previous (Values)
*: in public price
Italian retail market: reimbursable drugs
In units, the reimbursable market is becoming flat
Reimbursable market - in units
Units
600 000 000
500 000 000
400 000 000
300 000 000
200 000 000
100 000 000
0
1H2005
2H2005
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
9
1H2006
2H2006
1H2007
MTH/JUL/07
Italian retail market: reimbursable drugs
In value*, the reimbursable market is declining
In €
Reimbursable market - in value
7 000 000
6 000 000
-9%
5 000 000
4 000 000
3 000 000
2 000 000
1 000 000
0
1H2005
2H2005
1H2006
2H2006
Top 5 Europe: + 2% (1st 07 vs 1st 06)
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
10
1H2007
MTH/JUL/07
*: in public price
Italian pharma R&D
Growth of pharma R&D investment is higher than the rest
of the industry during the last 6 years
10,2
10
9,8
9,6
9,4
9,2
9
8,8
8,6
8,4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
% of pharma invest ment on t ot al indust ry
R&D investment - in million €
Pharma
Total Industry
893,9
921,1
883,1
915,0
1 004,7
1 070,0
1 115,0
+ 24.7%
9 230,7
9 710,7
9 778,6
9 690,6
10 143,0
10 575,4
10 975,0
+ 18.9%
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
11
Italian pharma R&D
% of workers in the R&D
In % of total employees
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Pharma
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total Industry
Rate of workers in pharma R&D is much more higher than in the industry
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
12
R&D : drugs in active development
750
Italy
1659
1217
Germany
France
465
2871
Spain
UK
Belgium: 401 - Poland : 155
Source : IMS Health – R&D Focus
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
13
Top 10 market rankings to 2010
China just behind the old Europe
2002
2010
1
USA
1
USA
2
JAPON
2
JAPON
3
ALLEMAGNE
3
FRANCE
4
FRANCE
4
ALLEMAGNE
5
ITALIE
5
UK
6
UK
6
ITALIE
7
ESPAGNE
7
CHINE
8
CANADA
8
CANADA
9
BRESIL
9
ESPAGNE
10
CHINE
10
10 countries:
+80% of drugs’ consumption
(in value)
• Italy will be the 6th country in
term of drugs’ consumption (in
value)
• China will be the 7st country in
term of drugs’ consumption (in
value)
• Turkey, South Korea and
India will be closed to Top 10
BRESIL
Source: IMS Health -IMS Market Prognosis 2002-2010
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 2007
14
Thank you very much for your attention ….
Daniel VIAL
Vicepresidente
IMS Europe
[email protected]