Document 1762362

FOREMOD: Modelling economic impact and strategies to increase resilience against tree disease outbreaks A Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity Ini5a5ve project. Adam Kleczkowski (PI) and Morag Macpherson University of S5rling Background Steve Hendry and Chris Quine Forest Research Nick Hanley and Oleg Sheremet University of St. Andrews John Healey Bangor University Chris Gilligan and Ciara Dangerfield University of Cambridge Elizabeth Whalley University of Warwick 45 years Cost and benefits 5mber and non-­‐
5mber services. Key ques(ons 1.  How can we model the trade-­‐offs between 5mber produc5on, ecological services and disease risk for a forest? 2.  How can we model the impact of various management op5ons on pathogen invasion? 3.  How does individual land manager choice of management strategies determine the level of disease risk? The Team ECONOMICS Forest management in absence of disease. Model Tree species. ECOLOGY Forest growth. 4.  How does the interac5on between mul5ple land managers determine disease spread in a landscape? 5.  What is the role of uncertainty over pathogen spread and emergence in shaping the decisions of land managers? 6.  What is the willingness to pay for ac5ons to reduce the damages of tree diseases? 7.  Which public policy ac5ons against disease risk pass a cost-­‐ benefit test? Effect of disease on 5mber and non-­‐
5mber services. Disease dynamics (transmission rate, external pressure, ...). EPIDEMIOLOGY Disease management: preven5on and control. Host-­‐pathogen combina(ons • Chalara fraxinea • Heterobasidion annosum • Dothistroma septosporum • Phythophthora ramorum