un integrated approach to manage chemical risk in industrial areas

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UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO
The RAI2 project:
un integrated approach to manage
chemical risk in industrial areas
Renato Rota
Politecnico di Milano
Dipartimento di Chimica dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica “G.Natta” (CMIC)
Via Mancinelli 7, 20131 Milano, Tel. +39.02.2399.3154,
E-mail: [email protected]
Simona Caragliano
Politecnico di Milano
Dipartimento di Chimica dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica “G.Natta” (CMIC)
Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Tel. +39.02.2399.3287,
E-mail: [email protected]
Scira Menoni
Politecnico di Milano
Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione (DiAP)
Via Bonardi 3, 20133 Milano, Tel. +39.02.2399.5457,
E-mail: [email protected]
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Goals
• Sponsors:
Politecnico of Milan
• Field of research:
- Chemical risk in industrial areas
- Civil Protection and Individual and National Safety
• Goals/Output:
chemical-industrial risk analysis and assessment
(direct consequences and domino effects) depending on un
integrated approach
METHODOLOGY
SOFTWARE
Integrated approach
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• Consider complex urban systems: its physical, social
and organizational factors when an hazard occurs
• Risk/Damage/Hazard/Vulnerability
• INTEGRATE DIFFERENT HAZARDS: industrial risks
caused by technological accidents (chain of events inside
a plant, interactions among neighbor industries, transport
of dangerous substances) and natural hazards (Na-Tech)
• Multi-risk approach: DAMAGES ESTIMATION
(risk assessment related to different dangerous events
affecting the same area or region)
• DIRECT CONSEQUENCES AND DOMINO EFFECTS
Structure of the project
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Activity 1.
Software design and methodology planning
Activity 2.
Risk analysis for small and medium businesses
Activity 3.
Transport of dangerous substances
assessment
Activity 4.
Metric to compare natural hazards with
industrial hazards
Activity 5.
Evaluation of the source term
Activity 6.
Explosion prevention
Activity 7.
Advanced mathematical models to prevent
major accidents
Activity 8.
Virtual training for emergency management
(AVE - Laboratorio di Addestramento Virtuale
alle Emergenze)
Project advancing
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• A1. Software design and methodology planning
- State of the art to asses chemical risk (software and methodology)
- Software/leading product (ARIPAR-GIS with UNIBO)
- Definition of possible additional units (Na-Tech – flood and
emergency management)
- Structure (input, processing and output)
• A4. Metric to compare natural hazards with
industrial hazards
- State of the art (Na-Tech risk: existent methodology to compare
different hazards)
- Definition of risk parameters to compare and asses different hazards
and damages
Methodology
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Industrial risk assessment
• Multi-risk approach:
- Probabilistic risk assessment (complex risk) by means of
the aggregation of single risks (quantitative
evaluation = risk measures)
• Probabilistic approach:
QARA - Quantitative Risk Analysis in terms of
frequency and consequences:
- Quantitative hazard assessment (frequency);
- Exposure (population distribution and vulnerability
centers);
- Damage assessment for people (Risk is: Individual, Local
and Social Risk)
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Software
INPUT
INPUT
INPUT
ARIPAR
RAI2
RAI2
FLOOD UNIT
EMER UNIT
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
UNIBO
POLIMI
SOFTWARE HOUSE
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INPUT
BORDERS
LAND USE
LIFELINES
VULNERABILITY CENTERS
RESOURCES
PEOPLE
V
P
WORK IN PROGRESS…
…
Probabilistic methods
ARIPAR
OUTPUT
RL
RI
RS
Seismic Risk
UNIBO
Landslide Risk
Flood Risk
POLIMI
Emergency Management
POLIMI
Chemical Risk:
Risk is a measure of human injury,
environmental damage or economic loss
in terms of both the incident likelihood
and the magnitude of the losses or
injuries.
Flood Unit/Emergency Unit
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How to integrate different units:
• Flood risk assessment on the basis of a QARA approach
(Quantitative Risk Analysis)
• Integration of new input (respect to QARA) to define a
support to manage an emergency at local level
(caused by a flood or a chemical accident): material and
human resources
• Industrial-flood/flood-industrial risk assessment by means of
the aggregation of single risks (quantitative evaluation =
risk measures, but also not totally quantitative…)
Industrial
risk
assessment
Flood
risk
assessment
Industrial-Flood
risk assessment
Emergency
Management
Output for
Emergency Management Unit
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INTERNAL EFFETCS
(plant)
- substance involved
- substance effects for people
- substance effects for natural
environment
- operators exposed
(localization and production)
- contiguous plants
- lifelines involved
- use of emergency areas
- localization of internal rescue
resources
EXTERNAL EFFECTS
(urban district)
- substance involved
- substance effects for people
- substance effects for natural
environment
- population exposed
- buildings exposed
- lifelines exposed and
functionally involved
- material resources
- human resources
Work in progress:
some results…
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Aim/Objective:
•
Compare risks by using a probabilistic approach
with the aim to define criteria for the implementation
of preventive measures
•
Using a quantitative approach to define specific risk and
considering a qualitative or not completely quantitative
approach to integrate different risks
•
Determination of Local, Individual and Social Risk
(damages for people) by means of different unit of
measurement (dead/year; injured/year; euros/year; …)
•
Determination of direct and domino effects to
people
Difficulties/Troubles:
•
•
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QARA approach considers hazards only in
respect to the frequency (P = probability of
occurrence); but it need, specially in a multi-risk
approach, to consider hazard in terms of:
kind of phenomena (F, type);
intensity (I);
coordinates, localization (L).
Urban Vulnerability is considered as a quantity
(distribution) of exposed people, properties, ...
Neither systemic vulnerability (physical and
functional interconnections) nor social
vulnerability (organizational and of perception)
are considered as elements that contribute to the
risk situation.
These are basic components to asses domino
effects…
Difficulties/Troubles:
•
-
•
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QARA approach applied to industrial risk considers
human losses and harms.
It needs to define other effects (not only physical
for people…) to organize the emergency and
preventive activities:
physical and systemic damages for building and
lifelines;
socio-organizational needs (operational):
material and human resources.
A quantitative approach is acceptable to assess
single risks (QARA approach), nevertheless it needs
to consider other approaches to integrate flood
and industrial risk as a different level of risk:
it is difficult to compare hazards by means of
similar/commune unit of measurement when they
don’t lend oneself.