Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook Fall 2014 November 12, 2014

Waccamaw Regional
Economic Outlook
Fall 2014
November 12, 2014
Rob Salvino
Coastal Carolina University
Executive Summary
The summer quarter (June, July, August) posted strong gains in residential construction
and moderate growth in tourism activity along the Grand Strand. Single family home
construction permits were up 44 percent for the quarter, and multi-family building activity
increased with a higher volume of small to medium-sized projects across the Grand
Strand. Employment growth was consistently positive across all three counties (Horry,
Georgetown, and Williamsburg). Admissions tax revenue continued its decline; however,
much of the decline was concentrated in the golf business segment, which accounted for
30 percent of the admissions tax revenue in Horry and Georgetown Counties for the
fiscal year-ending 2014: 25 percent of revenue in Horry County and 94 percent of
revenue in Georgetown County. Port tonnage was up 21.1 percent for the Georgetown
Port, and the voters of Georgetown County approved a capital project sales tax to
provide matching funds with the state and federal government in order to deepen the port
for increased accessibility to attract future shipments. In addition to port dredging, the tax
will be allocated for dredging the marsh in Murrells Inlet and for road maintenance in the
County. Economic activity in the region should continue growth at a moderate pace in the
coming quarters, while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate is expected to
stabilize.
Helpful Notes and Reminders
•
Tourism Quarters: To reflect the importance of the seasons, offset by 1 month so that Q1 (Winter)
is December, January, February, Q2 (Spring) is March, April, May, Q3 (Summer) is June, July,
August and Q4 (Fall) is September, October, November.
•
National data is based on normal calendar year, e.g. GDP 1st quarter is for January, February,
March.
•
All data reflect the period of business activity, unless otherwise noted.
•
Receipts and collections of tax revenue by SC DOR may not coincide with period of business
activity, e.g. retail sales business activity shows quarterly spikes; however the actual business
activity may not resemble this periodic behavior.
•
Reported and estimated changes in rate measures are reported as unit changes rather than
percent changes, for example the unemployment rate movement from 6% to 6.5% is shown as a
movement of one-half of a point (0.5).
•
In November, 2011 SC DOR received a ruling to aggressively pursue taxes on VRBO properties
as far back as ten years. The reporting does not adjust for the actual period of business activity
and is reflected in the period of collection.
Annualized Real GDP Growth (%)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
History
0.00
Forecast
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2.70 2.50 -1.50 2.90 0.80 4.60 2.30 1.60 2.50 0.10 2.70 1.80 4.50 3.50 -2.10 4.60 3.50
Forecast
2.5
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2.5
South Carolina Employment (Millions)
2.10
2.05
2.00
1.95
History
1.90
Forecast
1.85
1.80
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1.95 1.93 1.92 1.96 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.99 2.00 2.00 1.98 2.02 2.03 2.02 2.01 2.05 2.06
Forecast
2.03 2.02
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MYR Airport Deplanements (Thousands)
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
History
150.0
Forecast
100.0
50.0
0.0
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
History 309.5 220.1 110.7 239.4 337.2 196.8 108.4 200.5 264.3 172.2 104.9 224.3 309.3 191.6 106.7 245.2 328.0
Forecast
202.1 113.2
Source: Myrtle Beach International Airport
Georgetown Port Tonnage (Thousands)
200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
History
60.0
Forecast
40.0
20.0
0.0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
31.8 45.9 75.1 95.0 114.2 138.3 177.0 109.0 153.3 114.0 119.7 125.5 154.0 139.2 116.8 118.1 186.4
Forecast
147.6 124.6
Source: Georgetown Port Authority
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
History
30.0
Forecast
20.0
10.0
0.0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
82.1 40.6 26.3 54.1 77.3 41.1 28.3 57.5 78.6 40.7 29.9 56.1 83.3 44.8 31.4 59.6 82.6
Forecast
46.6 32.7
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Average Daily Rate
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
History
60.0
Forecast
40.0
20.0
0.0
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
History 130.6 66.9 54.9 90.7 136.7 67.3 54.6 98.3 142.7 66.7 53.1 97.3 147.0 67.3 52.6 96.5 149.0
Forecast
69.9 54.3
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Horry 1.5% Hospitality Fee Revenue ($Millions)
(County-wide fees on accommodations, prepared foods, beverages, admissions)
$18.0
$16.0
$14.0
$12.0
$10.0
$8.0
History
$6.0
Forecast
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
History $13.3 $5.7 $3.2 $7.0 $13.8 $5.9 $3.6 $7.7 $14.2 $6.3 $3.7 $7.8 $15.2 $6.3 $3.8 $8.2 $15.6
Forecast
$6.4 $3.8
Source: Horry County Government
Accommodations Tax Revenue ($Millions)
This page left blank intentionally.
See summary sheet for details.
Source: SC Department of Revenue
5% State Admissions Tax ($ Millions)
$5.0
$4.5
$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
History
$1.5
Forecast
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
$4.0 $1.8 $1.0 $2.6 $4.3 $2.0 $1.2 $2.9 $4.0 $1.7 $1.2 $2.9 $4.4 $1.9 $1.1 $2.8 $4.2
Forecast
$1.8 $1.0
Source: SC Department of Revenue
Regional Single Family Permits
1200
1000
800
600
History
400
Forecast
200
0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
342
324
320
425
462
344
372
589
628
586
587
811
703
668
663
Forecast
881 1015
855
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
779
Regional Multi-family Permits
600
500
400
300
History
200
Forecast
100
0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
44
25
7
34
6
539
244
34
39
16
25
158
41
271
186
Forecast
29
116
233
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
86
Regional Retail Sales ($ Millions)
3500
3000
2500
2000
WILLRETAIL
1500
GTOWNRETAIL
HORRYRETAIL
1000
500
0
Source: SC Department of Revenue
Georgetown Retail Sales ($ Millions)
450
400
350
300
250
200
History
150
Forecast
100
50
0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
352 296 303 286 369 293 268 356 396 304 281 350 409 313 281 364 426
Forecast
312 285
Source: SC Department of Revenue
Williamsburg Retail Sales ($ Millions)
180
160
140
120
100
80
History
60
Forecast
40
20
0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
141 153 133 154 122 132 139 144 134 137 145 145 150 143 154 157 143
Forecast
141 161
Source: SC Department of Revenue
Regional Employment Breakout (Thousands)
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
WILLEMP
60.0
GTOWNEMP
HORRYEMP
40.0
20.0
0.0
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Georgetown Employment (Thousands)
29.0
28.0
27.0
26.0
History
25.0
Forecast
24.0
23.0
History
Forecast
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
27.8 26.9 25.4 26.5 27.0 25.8 24.8 26.3 26.8 26.0 25.1 26.4 27.6 26.9 26.7 27.6 28.1
27.5 26.9
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Williamsburg Employment (Thousands)
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
History
13.0
Forecast
12.5
12.0
History
Forecast
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
13.6 13.8 13.6 13.9 13.9 13.5 12.9 13.1 13.3 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.4
14.2 14.1
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Georgetown Unemployment Rate
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
History
4.0
Forecast
2.0
0.0
History
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
11.3 11.4 12.8 10.9 10.9 10.7 11.6
9.7
9.4
8.8
10.2
8.3
8.0
7.3
7.2
5.6
6.2
Forecast
6.8
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7.0
Horry Unemployment Rate
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
History
6.0
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
History
Forecast
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
10.5 11.6 14.2 11.3 10.4 11.1 13.0
9.9
9.1
9.1
11.3
8.4
7.8
7.7
8.2
5.8
5.9
6.9
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7.5
Williamsburg Unemployment Rate
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
History
6.0
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
History
Forecast
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
14.1 13.4 14.2 12.7 13.8 13.9 14.6 12.7 12.6 11.8 12.2 10.3 10.6 9.4
8.7
7.0
7.8
8.0
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8.3
Regional Economic Outlook Board: Fall 2014
Presented to: The Waccamaw Regional Council of Governments' Regional Economic Outlook Board
Prepared and Presented by Dr. Rob Salvino, Research Economist, Center for Economic and Community Development
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration, Coastal Carolina University
November 2014
Value
History
Previous
Quarter
Summer 2014
Airport Deplanements (thousands)
Port Tonnage (thousands)
Occupancy Rate (Full Week)
Average Daily Rate (Full Week)
Horry County 1.5% Hosp. Fee Revenue ($millions)
Accommodations Tax Revenue ($millions)a
Admissions Tax Revenue ($millions)
Regional SF Building Permits*
Regional MF Building Permits*
Retail Sales ($millions)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Williamsburg County
Employment (thousands)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Williamsburg County
Unemployment Rate
Georgetown County
Horry County
Williamsburg County
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Fall 2014
Percent Change from Previous Year
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Winter 2015
History
Previous
Quarter
Summer 2014
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Fall 2014
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Winter 2015
5.5
6.0
1.7
2.6
0.9
6.2
6.6
1.2
1.7
1.5
-8.2
28.0
-14.0
-5.8
17.5
-54.0
4.2
4.3
-5.1
-0.4
0.2
-1.1
1.3
0.8
4.7
328.0
6.0
202.1
113.2
186.4
21.1
147.6
124.6
82.6
-0.7
46.6
32.7
$
149.0
2.0
$
70.0
$
54.3
$
15.6
3.1
$
6.4
$
3.8
Will resume regular tracking and forecasting of county accommodations tax receipts next quarter.
$
4.2
-4.4
$
1.8
$
1.0
1015
44.4
855
779
116
182.9
233
86
$
426.5
$ 3,158.1
$
142.8
$
312.0
$ 2,091.8
$
141.0
$
284.7
$ 1,796.0
$
161.0
28,097
132,446
14,424
27,523
121,476
14,186
26,890
115,150
14,109
2.0
3.8
2.0
2.1
3.0
1.7
0.6
2.6
1.6
6.2
5.9
7.8
6.8
6.9
8.0
7.0
7.5
8.3
-1.8
-1.8
-2.8
-0.6
-0.7
-1.4
-0.2
-0.7
-0.4
Notes: Spring quarter is March - May, Summer is June - August, Fall is September - November, Winter is December - February. Retail Sales, Accomodations Tax Revenue and
Admissions Tax Revenue represent the period of business activity. For example, Accommodations Taxes for Summer represent the business activity incurrec during the Summer quarter.
Percent change from previous year is relative to the same quarter from the previous year. For example, percent change for Summer 2010 is the percent change between Summer 2009 and
Summer 2010. Rate given is absolute change for: Occupancy Rate, ADR and Unemployment Rates. For example, the given change for the Occupancy Rate during Summer 2009 is simply the
Summer 2010 Occupancy Rate minus the Summer 2009 Occupancy Rate.
a
SCDOR received a ruling in November 2011 allowing it to more aggressively pursue tax from VRBO properties. Monthly reporting may include back payments from last 10 years.
February collections in 2013 for Georgetown County were adjusted to -$278k - negative . *Williamsburg County analysis began August 2013
November 2014
Questions may be directed to Dr. Rob Salvino, 843-349-2719, [email protected]
Regional Economic Outlook: