Annual Waccamaw Region Economic Outlook 2014-2015 March 19, 2014

Annual Waccamaw Region
Economic Outlook
2014-2015
March 19, 2014
Rob Salvino
Coastal Carolina University
2013 Waccamaw Region Economic Performance
+3,900 jobs in 2013 (2.5%)
Horry:
Single Family Permits up 25%
+2,600 jobs (2.25%)
Median Home Prices up 7%
Georgetown: +1,000 jobs (3.8%)
Williamsburg: + 300 jobs (2.3%)
Multi-family building up 70%
Retail sales up 5.6% ($500mil.)
Local Tourism Revenue up 5%
Percentage Growth in Population (1990 – 2012)
100
90
75.6
80
70
60
46.5
50
30
20
10
0
36.6
35.5
40
26.2
30.9
“Core” Area Population 2012
(Area Counties)
1080000
945,705
960000
840000
664,236
720000
554,943
600000
488,351
480000
360000
240000
120000
0
Waccamaw and Brunswick
Charleston-Berkley
Greenville-SpartanburgAnderson
Richland-Lexington
Median Household Income (2008-2012 average)
$60,000
$53,046
50,289
48,438
$50,000
46,450
46,490
44,623
43,421
42,472
42,183
$40,000
$30,000
24,174
$20,000
$10,000
$0
US
NC
SC
Charleston
Greenville
Brunswick Spartanburg Georgetown
Horry
Williamsburg
Region Single Family Building Permits
900
800
700
600
500
Back to a
healthy
volume
400
300
200
100
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
GEORGETOW N
HORRY
W ILLIAMSBURG
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
08
10
12
14
2001M01
2001M06
2001M11
2002M04
2002M09
2003M02
2003M07
2003M12
2004M05
2004M10
2005M03
2005M08
2006M01
2006M06
2006M11
2007M04
2007M09
2008M02
2008M07
2008M12
2009M05
2009M10
2010M03
2010M08
2011M01
2011M06
2011M11
2012M04
2012M09
2013M02
2013M07
2013M12
Horry County Multi-family Permits
Horry MF Permits
1200
1000
800
600
400
Horry MF Permits
200
0
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
Region Retail Sales ($millions)
(3 counties)
Region Retail Sales
11500
Up 5.2% YoY
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: SC Department of Revenue
2012
2013
County Retail Sales ($ Millions)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
GEORGETOW N
HORRY
W ILLIAMSBURG
Source: SC Department of Revenue
08
10
12
14
Georgetown Port Tonnage (thousands)
Port Tonnage
1,200
1,094
1,000
888
Need 1 million tons/year
for US Army Corps to consider
for dredging funding.
800
600
532
552
2012
2013
457
400
312
265
200
107
157
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: SC Ports Authority
2011
Horry County Hospitality Fee ($)
1.5% County-wide on Accommodations, Prepared Foods, Beverages, Admissions
+1.3% YoY
+5.9% YTD ‘14
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
FY 2005
FY 2006
FY 2007
FY 2008
FY 2009
FY 2010
Source: SC Department of Revenue
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
Georgetown County Local Accommodations Tax
+ 8% YoY and
YTD
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
Myrtle Beach Airport Passenger
Deplanements
Airport Deplanements
140000
120000
2010
2011
2013
100000
Carriers brought
back larger planes
and more flights for
2013 and 2014
2012
80000
60000
Airport Deplanements
40000
20000
2000M01
2000M08
2001M03
2001M10
2002M05
2002M12
2003M07
2004M02
2004M09
2005M04
2005M11
2006M06
2007M01
2007M08
2008M03
2008M10
2009M05
2009M12
2010M07
2011M02
2011M09
2012M04
2012M11
2013M06
2014M01
0
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Average Daily Rate
Average Daily Rate
$92.00
$90.00
$88.89
$89.55
$87.49
$88.00
$86.00
$90.45
$91.19
$87.34
$84.51
$84.20
$84.00
$81.78
$82.00
$80.00
$78.00
$76.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
2012
2013
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate
(Annual Average % Occupied)
58.00
56.00
55.16
55.72
53.82
53.65
54.00
51.27
52.00
50.20
50.02
2010
2011
49.37
50.00
47.94
48.00
46.00
44.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
2012
2013
Region Employment (3 Counties)
Region Employment
168,000
165,340
166,000
163,585
164,000
162,330
162,000
159,090
160,000
158,000
156,000
155,092
153,969
154,549
155,173
153,759
154,000
152,000
150,000
148,000
146,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2013
Regional Employment Breakout
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Horry Employment Level
Georgetown Employment Level
W illiamsburg Employment Level
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
14
Unemployment Rates
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
US
HORRY
W ILLIAMSBURG
04
06
08
10
12
SC
GEORGETOW N
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
Long-Run Growth Factors
• Tourism – Drivable and Affordable
• Retirement destination
• Health Care
• Higher Education
• Population growth driving new twist
…Healthy growth over long-run
Overall Outlook
• Favorable Growth for Region over the Long-term
+ Employment Growth of 2%
+ Retail Sales Growth of 3.5%
+ Construction Growth moderating but positive at 10%
• Interest Rate Risk in Short-run (1-3 years)
– Mortgage rates to affect housing, but
– Lower land values, cash sales, population and job
growth can offset this effect (How much is uncertain)
• Core local sectors should remain relatively strong – but
risky investments in these sectors still vulnerable.
Thank you.
• Questions, comments, suggestions?