Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook Winter 2013 February 13, 2013

Waccamaw Regional
Economic Outlook
Winter 2013
February 13, 2013
Rob Salvino
Coastal Carolina University
Executive Summary
The Grand Strand economy continues to improve, although we have yet to see significant gains in
employment and income. The unemployment rate continues to fall, almost entirely due to
unemployed individuals leaving the labor force. Healthcare and higher education are leading
growth in employment, but these gains have not yet been strong enough to offset the losses in
other sectors. The strong retirement demographic continues to stabilize demand in both the
tourism and residential construction sectors. Nationally, the economy weakened in the fourth
quarter of 2012 as GDP declined 0.1 percent. Fiscal uncertainty associated with the budget
debate as well as the expiration of the 2 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax will weigh
on investor and consumer confidence in the first half of 2013.
Helpful Notes and Reminders
•
Tourism Quarters: To reflect the importance of the seasons, offset by 1 month so that Q1 (Winter)
is December, January, February, Q2 (Spring) is March, April, May, Q3 (Summer) is June, July,
August and Q4 (Fall) is September, October, November.
•
National data is based on normal calendar year, e.g. GDP 1st quarter is for January, February,
March.
•
All data reflect the period of business activity, unless otherwise noted.
•
Receipts and collections of tax revenue by SC DOR may not coincide with period of business
activity, e.g. retail sales business activity shows quarterly spikes; however the actual business
activity may not resemble this periodic behavior.
•
Reported and estimated changes in rate measures are reported as unit changes rather than
percent changes, for example the unemployment rate movement from 6% to 6.5% is shown as a
movement of one-half of a point (0.5).
•
In November, 2011 SC DOR received a ruling to aggressively pursue taxes on VRBO properties
as far back as ten years. The reporting does not adjust for the actual period of business activity
and is reflected in the period of collection.
Presentation Format
Beginning Slides:
Historical trends of national and local
measures of economic activity.
Remaining Slides:
Recent quarterly activity and forecast of
national and local activity.
Real GDP ($ Billions)
REALGDP
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis
10
12
US Retail Spending
(Not Seasonally Adjusted, no inflation adjustment)
USRETAILSALES
500,000
December Spike
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau
10
12
US New Home Sales
(thousands)
Source: US Bureau of the Census
Measure of Historical Tourism Activity
Horry County Hospitality Fee
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Source: Horry County Government
06
08
10
12
Horry County SF Permits
Horry SF Permits
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
08
10
12
Myrtle Beach Employment by Sector
45
Leisure and Hospitality
40
35
30
25
Retail Georgetown’s largest sector
20
All Government
15
Goods Producing
10
5
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011 U-rate Average: 11.6%
2010 U-rate Average: 11.9%
Labor Force down 2,457 people from 2009 average.
Horry Unemployment Rate
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Annualized Real GDP Growth (%)
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
History
1
Forecast
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
History
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
-0.3
1.4
4
2.3
2.2
2.6
2.4
0.1
2.5
1.3
4.1
2
1.3
3.1
-0.1
Forecast
13Q1
-0.1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis
MYB Airport Deplanements (Thousands)
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
History
150.0
Forecast
100.0
50.0
0.0
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
History 175.0 109.2 208.7 248.8 174.1 108.4 230.6 309.5 220.1 110.7 239.4 337.2 196.8 108.4 200.5 264.3 172.2
Forecast
104.4 205.7
Source: Myrtle Beach International Airport
Georgetown Port Tonnage (Thousands)
200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
History
60.0
Forecast
40.0
20.0
0.0
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
History 144.3 15.1 30.3 47.0 29.7 21.7 30.6 31.8 45.9 75.1 95.0 114.2 138.3 177.0 109.0 153.3 114.0
Forecast
150.9 129.3
Source: Georgetown Port Authority
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
History
30.0
Forecast
20.0
10.0
0.0
History
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
39.7 26.8 47.7 77.3 39.2 27.3 52.3 82.1 40.6 26.3 54.1 77.3 41.1 28.3 57.5 78.6 40.7
Forecast
29.5 58.1
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Average Daily Rate
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
History
60.0
Forecast
40.0
20.0
0.0
History
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
67.6 52.5 88.4 125.0 62.4 51.2 87.2 130.6 66.9 54.9 90.7 136.7 67.3 54.6 98.3 142.7 66.7
Forecast
56.8 102.8
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Horry 1.5% Hospitality Fee Revenue
(County-wide fees on accommodations, prepared foods, beverages, admissions)
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
History
6.0
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
History
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
5.2
3.4
6.3
12.4
5.2
3.2
6.5
13.3
5.7
3.2
7.0
13.8
5.9
3.6
Forecast
7.7
14.2
6.3
3.7
Source: Horry County Government
7.9
Accommodations Tax Revenue ($Millions)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
History
4.0
Forecast
2.0
0.0
History
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
2.2
1.0
3.0
8.5
2.5
1.0
2.9
9.5
2.7
1.0
3.6
9.8
2.8
1.3
Forecast
5.8
10.4
2.3
1.2
Source: SC Department of Revenue
4.3
5% State Admissions Tax ($ Millions)
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
History
1.5
Forecast
1.0
0.5
0.0
History
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
2.0
1.2
2.9
3.8
2.1
1.1
2.5
4.0
1.8
1.0
2.6
4.3
2.0
1.2
Forecast
2.9
4.0
1.7
1.0
Source: SC Department of Revenue
2.8
Regional Single Family Permits
700
600
500
400
300
History
200
Forecast
100
0
History
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
367 230 378 446 453 388 482 334 317 314 419 461 343 368 582 621 579
Forecast
555 594
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
Regional Multi-family Permits
600
500
400
300
History
200
Forecast
100
0
History
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
76
83
42
43
98
35
44
41
22
4
31
3
536 194
31
Forecast
36
13
39
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
35
Regional Retail Sales ($ Millions)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
History
1,000
Forecast
500
0
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
History 2,076 1,750 2,164 2,879 1,994 1,729 2,338 3,107 2,316 2,116 2,182 3,108 2,268 1,932 2,531 3,224 2,242
Forecast
1,952 2,572
Source: SC Department of Revenue
Regional Employment (Thousands)
155.0
150.0
145.0
140.0
135.0
History
130.0
Forecast
125.0
120.0
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
History 145.0 134.0 143.6 151.7 139.1 132.2 143.8 153.4 144.0 131.6 140.4 151.5 140.6 134.9 143.2 147.1 141.3
Forecast
135.1 143.5
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Georgetown Unemployment Rate
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
History
6.0
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
History
Forecast
08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2
8.5 12.5 11.5 11.7 12.6 14.6 11.8 11.3 11.1 12.7 10.8 10.6 10.2 10.7 9.3
9.4
8.2
9.9
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8.5
Grand Strand Economic Outlook: Winter 2013
Presented to: The Waccamaw Regional Council of Governments' Grand Strand Economic Outlook Board
Prepared and Presented by Dr. Rob Salvino, Research Economist, Center for Economic and Community Development
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration, Coastal Carolina University
February 2013
Value
Airport Deplanements (thousands)
Port Tonnage (thousands)
Occupancy Rate (Full Week)
Average Daily Rate (Full Week)
Horry County 1.5% Hosp. Fee Revenue ($millions)
Accommodations Tax Revenue ($millions)a
Admissions Tax Revenue ($millions)
Regional SF Building Permits
Regional MF Building Permits
Retail Sales ($millions)*
Georgetown County**
Horry County**
Employment (thousands)*
Georgetown County
Horry County
Unemployment Rate*
Georgetown County
Horry County
Percent Change from Previous Year
History
Previous
Quarter
Fall 2012
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Winter 2013
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Spring 2013
History
Previous
Quarter
Fall 2011
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Winter 2012
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Spring 2012
172.2
113.9
40.7
66.7
6.3
2.3
1.7
579
13
104.4
150.9
29.5
56.8
3.7
1.2
1.0
555
38
205.7
129.3
58.1
102.8
7.9
4.3
2.8
594
35
-12.5
-17.6
-3.7
-14.8
2.6
18.7
-0.6
-0.3
-19.0
-14.1
68.8
-97.6
2.2
1.2
-7.2
-14.3
50.8
-80.1
4.5
0.6
-25.9
-3.1
2.1
12.3
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 303.7
$ 1,938.4
$ 287.3
$ 1,665.0
$ 351.2
$ 2,220.4
3.5
-1.8
7.3
0.1
-1.3
2.1
27.2
114.1
26.7
108.4
27.5
115.9
1.5
0.3
1.3
-0.1
1.4
-0.1
8.2
9.1
9.9
11.5
8.5
9.2
-1.9
-1.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
Notes: Spring quarter is March - May, Summer is June - August, Fall is September - November, Winter is December - February. Retail Sales, Accomodations Tax Revenue and
Admissions Tax Revenue represent the period of business activity. For example, Accommodations Taxes for Summer represent the business activity incurrec during the Summer quarter.
Percent change from previous year is relative to the same quarter from the previous year. For example, percent change for Summer 2010 is the percent change between Summer 2009 and
Summer 2010. Rate given is absolute change for: Occupancy Rate, ADR and Unemployment Rates. For example, the given change for the Occupancy Rate during Summer 2009 is simply the
Summer 2010 Occupancy Rate minus the Summer 2009 Occupancy Rate. *SCDOR Reporting delays skew Retail Sales Year-over-Year comparisons.
a
SCDOR received a ruling in November 2011 allowing it to more aggressively pursue tax from VRBO properties. Monthly reporting may include back payments from last 10 years.
*BLS re-benching of 2011 labor force and employment estimates.
Questions may be directed to Dr. Rob Salvino, 843-349-2719, [email protected]
Grand Strand Economic Outlook: Winter 2013