Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook Fall 2013 November 13, 2013

Waccamaw Regional
Economic Outlook
Fall 2013
November 13, 2013
Rob Salvino
Coastal Carolina University
Executive Summary
The summer quarter of economic activity in the Waccamaw Region saw continued gains
in real estate and construction, tourism, and activity at the recently expanded Myrtle
Beach International Airport as Spirit Airlines added significant capacity to meet demand.
All major local indicators of economic activity have shown significant growth year-overyear. Employment is up across all three counties of the region, and retail sales activity is
up from the combination of residential and visitor spending. The fall quarter has started
with continued normal gains in activity, and the uncertainty from the temporary, partial
government shutdown has been relieved until the next budget deadline in the new year.
Signs are mixed on the ultimate impact of the shutdown on the regional economy.
However any effects should be temporary and appear to be limited to consumer
spending. Real estate and construction have shown little sign of any impact from the
shutdown. Interest rate policy has been left alone until next year, reaffirming the message
from the Fed economist at our Annual Growth Summit in August. Future risks on the
horizon for 2014 include the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy under the
new Fed Chairwoman. The local outlook for the fall and winter quarters is positive as
employment gains nationwide and locally continue, supporting consumer spending and
the housing market.
Helpful Notes and Reminders
•
Tourism Quarters: To reflect the importance of the seasons, offset by 1 month so that Q1 (Winter)
is December, January, February, Q2 (Spring) is March, April, May, Q3 (Summer) is June, July,
August and Q4 (Fall) is September, October, November.
•
National data is based on normal calendar year, e.g. GDP 1st quarter is for January, February,
March.
•
All data reflect the period of business activity, unless otherwise noted.
•
Receipts and collections of tax revenue by SC DOR may not coincide with period of business
activity, e.g. retail sales business activity shows quarterly spikes; however the actual business
activity may not resemble this periodic behavior.
•
Reported and estimated changes in rate measures are reported as unit changes rather than
percent changes, for example the unemployment rate movement from 6% to 6.5% is shown as a
movement of one-half of a point (0.5).
•
In November, 2011 SC DOR received a ruling to aggressively pursue taxes on VRBO properties
as far back as ten years. The reporting does not adjust for the actual period of business activity
and is reflected in the period of collection.
Presentation Format
Beginning Slides:
Annual historical trends and forecasts
of national and state economic activity.
Remaining Slides:
Recent quarterly activity and forecast of
local economic activity.
Annualized Real GDP Growth (%)
6
5
4
3
2
History
1
Forecast
0
-1
-2
History
Forecast
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
1.4
4
2.3
2.2
2.6
2.4
-1.3
3.2
1.4
4.9
3.7
1.2
2.8
0.1
1.1
2.5
2.8
1.7
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2.5
30-Year Mortgage Rate
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: US Federal Reserve Bank FRED Database
10
12
14
US Single Family Permits (Thousands)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
08
10
12
14
SC Single Family Permits
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
08
10
12
14
South Carolina Employment (Millions)
2.05
2.00
1.95
1.90
History
Forecast
1.85
1.80
1.75
History
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
1.93 1.89 1.86 1.90 1.95 1.93 1.91 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.93 1.97 1.98 1.98 1.96 2.00 2.00
Forecast
1.98 1.97
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
South Carolina Retail Sales ($ Millions)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: SC Department of Revenue
08
10
12
14
Unemployment Rates
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
US
HORRY
W ILLIAMSBURG
04
06
08
10
12
SC
GEORGETOW N
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
MYB Airport Deplanements (Thousands)
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
History
150.0
Forecast
100.0
50.0
0.0
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
History 248.8 174.1 108.4 230.6 309.5 220.1 110.7 239.4 337.2 196.8 108.4 200.5 264.3 172.2 104.9 224.3 309.3
Forecast
195.8 108.0
Source: Myrtle Beach International Airport
Georgetown Port Tonnage (Thousands)
200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
History
80.0
Forecast
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
History
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
47.0 29.7 21.7 30.6 31.8 45.9 75.1 95.0 114.2 138.3 177.0 109.0 153.3 114.0 119.7 125.5 154.0
Forecast
153.3 130.6
Source: Georgetown Port Authority
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
History
30.0
Forecast
20.0
10.0
0.0
History
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
75.6 42.8 24.4 48.6 81.2 45.1 23.6 51.2 78.0 45.8 25.7 54.6 80.5 46.7 26.3 53.4 82.2
Forecast
50.0 26.9
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Average Daily Rate
$160.0
$140.0
$120.0
$100.0
$80.0
History
$60.0
Forecast
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
History $125. $64.9 $49.4 $82.3 $129. $70.9 $53.5 $84.8 $139. $71.0 $52.9 $91.7 $147. $72.1 $51.7 $88.9 $149.
Forecast
$72.8 $52.3
Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Horry 1.5% Hospitality Fee Revenue ($Millions)
(County-wide fees on accommodations, prepared foods, beverages, admissions)
$16.0
$14.0
$12.0
$10.0
$8.0
History
$6.0
Forecast
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
History $12.4 $5.2 $3.2 $6.5 $13.3 $5.7 $3.2 $7.0 $13.8 $5.9 $3.6 $7.7 $14.2 $6.3 $3.7 $7.8 $15.2
Forecast
$6.3 $3.8
Source: Horry County Government
Accommodations Tax Revenue ($Millions)
$14.0
$12.0
$10.0
$8.0
History
$6.0
Forecast
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
History
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
$8.5 $2.5 $1.0 $2.9 $9.5 $2.7 $1.0 $3.6 $9.8 $2.8 $1.3 $5.8 $10.4 $2.3 $1.7 $4.1 $11.6
Forecast
$3.0 $1.4
Source: SC Department of Revenue
County Accommodations Tax ($)
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
-1,000,000
92
94
96
98
00
HORRY
02
04
06
08
GEORGETOW N
Source: SC Department of Revenue
10
12
14
5% State Admissions Tax ($ Millions)
$5.0
$4.5
$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
History
$1.5
Forecast
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
09Q 09Q 10Q 10Q 10Q 10Q 11Q 11Q 11Q 11Q 12Q 12Q 12Q 12Q 13Q 13Q 13Q 13Q 14Q
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
History $3.8 $2.1 $1.1 $2.5 $4.0 $1.8 $1.0 $2.6 $4.3 $2.0 $1.2 $2.9 $4.0 $1.7 $1.2 $2.9 $4.4
Forecast
$1.7 $1.2
Source: SC Department of Revenue
County Admissions Tax ($)
2,000,000
1,600,000
1,200,000
800,000
400,000
0
92
94
96
98
00
HORRY
02
04
06
08
GEORGETOW N
Source: SC Department of Revenue
10
12
14
Regional Single Family Permits
900
800
700
600
500
400
History
300
Forecast
200
100
0
History
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
452 458 393 490 342 324 320 425 462 344 372 589 628 586 553 782 703
Forecast
648 626
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
County Single Family Building Permits
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
GEORGETOW N
HORRY
W ILLIAMSBURG
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
08
10
12
14
Regional Multi-family Permits
600
500
400
300
History
Forecast
200
100
0
History
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
46
101
39
47
44
25
7
34
6
539 244
34
39
16
25
Forecast
154
41
44
Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System
59
Regional Retail Sales ($ Billions)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
History
1.5
Forecast
1.0
0.5
0.0
History
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
3.0
2.1
1.9
2.5
3.2
2.5
2.2
2.3
3.2
2.4
2.1
2.7
3.4
2.4
Forecast
2.1
2.8
3.6
2.4
Source: SC Department of Revenue
2.1
County Retail Sales ($ Millions)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
GEORGETOW N
HORRY
W ILLIAMSBURG
Source: SC Department of Revenue
08
10
12
14
Regional Employment (Thousands)
170.0
165.0
160.0
155.0
150.0
History
145.0
Forecast
140.0
135.0
130.0
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
History 165.9 152.5 143.9 155.8 165.4 152.7 143.3 154.6 164.7 152.3 143.1 155.2 165.7 155.4 149.3 159.3 167.7
Forecast
157.0 150.8
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Regional Employment Breakout (Thousands)
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Horry Employment Level
Georgetown Employment Level
W illiamsburg Employment Level
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
14
Georgetown Unemployment Rate
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
History
6.0
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
History
Forecast
09Q 09Q 10Q 10Q 10Q 10Q 11Q 11Q 11Q 11Q 12Q 12Q 12Q 12Q 13Q 13Q 13Q 13Q 14Q
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
11.5 12.5 14.6 12.1 11.4 11.5 12.9 11.0 11.0 10.8 11.8 9.8 9.4 8.7 10.0 8.2 8.2
7.9 9.1
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Horry Unemployment Rate
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
History
6.0
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
History
Forecast
09Q 09Q 10Q 10Q 10Q 10Q 11Q 11Q 11Q 11Q 12Q 12Q 12Q 12Q 13Q 13Q 13Q 13Q 14Q
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
10.5 11.8 14.9 11.9 10.6 11.7 14.3 11.5 10.5 11.2 13.1 10.0 9.2 9.3 11.5 8.6 8.1
8.6 10.5
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Williamsburg Unemployment Rate
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
History
6.0
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
History
Forecast
09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1
15.2 14.8 16.6 13.9 14.3 13.5 14.3 12.8 13.9 14.0 14.9 12.9 13.0 12.0 13.0 11.0 11.7
10.8 11.9
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Regional Economic Outlook Board: Fall 2013
Presented to: The Waccamaw Regional Council of Governments' Regional Economic Outlook Board
Prepared and Presented by Dr. Rob Salvino, Research Economist, Center for Economic and Community Development
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration, Coastal Carolina University
November 2013
Value
Airport Deplanements (thousands)
Port Tonnage (thousands)
Occupancy Rate (Full Week)
Average Daily Rate (Full Week)
Horry County 1.5% Hosp. Fee Revenue ($millions)
Accommodations Tax Revenue ($millions)a
Admissions Tax Revenue ($millions)
Regional SF Building Permits*
Regional MF Building Permits*
Retail Sales ($millions)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Williamsburg County
Employment (thousands)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Williamsburg County
Unemployment Rate
Georgetown County
Horry County
Williamsburg County
Percent Change from Previous Year
History
Previous
Quarter
Summer 2013
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Fall 2013
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Winter 2013
History
Previous
Quarter
Summer 2013
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Fall 2013
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Winter 2013
309.3
153.9
82.2
149.0
15.2
11.6
4.4
703
41
195.8
153.3
50.0
72.8
6.3
3.0
1.7
648
44
108.0
130.6
26.9
52.0
3.8
1.4
1.2
626
59
17.1
0.4
1.8
1.8
7.2
10.9
8.6
11.9
5.1
13.7
34.5
3.4
0.7
0.5
33.8
2.9
10.7
177.7
2.9
9.1
0.6
0.6
5.0
-15.5
4.9
13.2
134.6
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 409.3
$ 3,027.6
$ 150.5
$
315.7
$ 1,992.6
$
141.0
$ 291.5
$ 1,683.0
$ 148.9
3.5
7.0
12.3
4.0
2.8
2.8
3.7
1.4
2.9
27,516
126,943
13,267
26,993
117,009
13,006
26,524
111,321
12,940
1.7
1.1
1.6
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.2
0.4
8.2
8.1
11.7
7.9
8.6
10.8
9.1
10.5
11.9
-1.2
-1.1
-1.3
-0.8
-0.7
-1.2
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1
Notes: Spring quarter is March - May, Summer is June - August, Fall is September - November, Winter is December - February. Retail Sales, Accomodations Tax Revenue and
Admissions Tax Revenue represent the period of business activity. For example, Accommodations Taxes for Summer represent the business activity incurrec during the Summer quarter.
Percent change from previous year is relative to the same quarter from the previous year. For example, percent change for Summer 2010 is the percent change between Summer 2009 and
Summer 2010. Rate given is absolute change for: Occupancy Rate, ADR and Unemployment Rates. For example, the given change for the Occupancy Rate during Summer 2009 is simply the
Summer 2010 Occupancy Rate minus the Summer 2009 Occupancy Rate.
a
SCDOR received a ruling in November 2011 allowing it to more aggressively pursue tax from VRBO properties. Monthly reporting may include back payments from last 10 years.
February collections in 2013 for Georgetown County were adjusted to -$278k - negative . *Williamsburg County analysis began August 2013
November 2013
Questions may be directed to Dr. Rob Salvino, 843-349-2719, [email protected]
Regional Economic Outlook: