Capital Markets Flash Canadian M&A Deals Quarterly
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Capital Markets Flash Canadian M&A Deals Quarterly
Q1 2015 | Canadian deals announced, sector report and more Perspectives from your leading global mid-market M&A advisor Capital Markets Flash Canadian M&A Deals Quarterly In this issue 2 Q1 highlights 7 anadian IPO Survey C Q1, 2015 8 orest, Paper & Packaging F Deals insights: Q1, 2015 12 Getting what you want for your business 15 S upreme Court decision clarifies the application of efficiencies to merger reviews 18 Surrey Biofuels Facility: The first closed-loop organics P3 in North America 19 Predictive financial modelling for oil and gas investments 22 PwC strengthens forensic technology practice with acquisition of Platinum Legal Group 23 Meet PwC’s Canadian Deals industry team leaders www.pwc.com/ca/deals 80,000 1,000 Inbound Domestic Outbound Deal Volume 900 70,000 800 60,000 700 50,000 600 40,000 500 Q2 Q3 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 0 1,200 Aggregate Deal Value Deal Volume 1,000 140,000 120,000 800 600 80,000 60,000 400 40,000 200 20,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Q1 VOLUME à VALUE (US$ MILLIONS) à 100,000 2015 Sources: S&P Capital IQ, PwC Analysis % Deal Values % Deal Volumes 20% 75% Quarterly Canadian M&A inbound, domestic and outbound activity by value and volume, 2009–2015 15% 80,000 50% 1,000 Domestic Outbound Deal Volume 900 VOLUME à Inbound 70,000 800 10% 60,000 700 50,000 25% 600 40,000 500 5% 400 30,000 10,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 0% 200 2015 100 Q1 2015 0 VOLUME à 300 20,000 0% Sources: S&P Capital IQ, PwC Analysis 180,000 1,200 Aggregate Deal Value 160,000 1,000 140,000 120,000 800 100,000 600 80,000 60,000 40,000 Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 20,000 Deal Volume 400 2 Q1 2015 200 OLUME à The first quarter of 2015 brought a decline in inbound deal activity compared to Q4-2014, which is unusual in that the weak Canadian dollar would typically result in increased interest from abroad. In fact the weak Canadian dollar drove acquisitive Canadian companies to domestic targets, due to the higher cost of US targets. Given that inbound activity is taking time to materialize, Q2 and Q3 should see increased inbound activity as contemplated deals come to fruition. Q1 100 180,000 VALUE à Fewer inbound deals than expected 0 160,000 VALUE (US$ MILLIONS) à A large part of the decline in deal value can be attributed to the significant value of deals in Q4-2014, led by Repsol’s acquisition of Talisman, a transaction valued at over $13 billion. During the first quarter, we also saw a larger number of middle market deals (i.e. deals valued between $50m and $500m) as compared to large deals. 200 10,000 Quarterly Canadian M&A, consecutive quarters by value and volume, 2007–2015 ALUE (US$ MILLIONS) à Given the weak Canadian dollar, in our view it is unusual that deal value and volume were both down during the first quarter of 2015. While deal volume was only down slightly between the two quarters, deal value was down substantially over the same period. 300 20,000 VOLUME à VALUE (US$ MILLIONS) à 90 days, 649 deals, $37.1 billion Canadian M&A: Q1 in brief 400 30,000 80,000 | Canadian M&A: Q1 in brief 1,000 Inbound Domestic Outbound Deal Volume 900 70,000 800 VALUE (US$ MILLIONS) à 60,000 700 50,000 600 40,000 500 400 Champlain Bridge in Montreal and Train de l’Ouest - a train to service 300 Montreal’s West Island and Trudeau International Airport. Caisse is 200 planning to create a new subsidiary to manage these activities. 30,000 Private equity firms continue to drive deal activity 20,000 VOLUME à 60,000 400 40,000 200 20,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Private equity as a percentage of deal by value and volume, 2007–2015 % Deal Values 0 Q1 VOLUME à VALUE (US$ MILLIONS) à During Q1-2015, private equity (‘PE’) firms continued to drive 10,000 M&A activity, accounting for close to half of all deal value. Canadian 100 With respect to the deal, Caisse CEO Michael Sabia recently PE deals focused primarily on the infrastructure and real estate space, 0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 explained, “There will be and is a substantial market for the a trend we Q1expect to continue for the foreseeable future as PE firms 2014 2015 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 seek to expand their infrastructure and real estate investments beyond capabilities that this subsidiary will have – working for a long-term public investor, not a short-term flipper of assets, a team that has the deals involving existing assets. The reason is that such deals have become highly competitive and expensive to execute, and therefore PE ability to manage a project from planning to execution to operation.” firms are seeking opportunities to get involved earlier—as early as the The challenge is that skill sets associated with design and build phases 180,000 1,200 design, build, finance and/or operate (‘DBFO’) phases so that they can Value Aggregate Deal of Deal Volume an infrastructure project are very different from those required to 160,000 ‘own’ original projects from the beginning. 1,000 operate an asset effectively. The private equity firms that can combine 140,000 infrastructure project management and operational skills are almost For example, in January 2015 the Caisse de dépôt et placement 120,000 800 certain to have an edge over their competition in this regard. du Québec entered a deal with the Government of Québec to take 100,000 over the financing and ownership of certain infrastructure projects, 600 80,000 beginning with the development of a light-rail system on the % Deal Volumes 20% 75% 15% 10% VOLUME à VALUE à 50% 25% 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0% Q1 2015 Sources: S&P Capital IQ, PwC Analysis Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 3 Q1 2015 | Canadian M&A: Q1 in brief No sign of O&G Looking at more industry deals activity, there was little sign of O&G in Q1-2015, which was similar to Q4-2014, with utilities, finance, and real estate transactions leading deal value over the quarter. Looking at deal volume, materials (i.e. primarily B-to-B) was responsible for almost a quarter of deal activity, followed by real estate, industrials, and software and services. Interesting to note is that Q1-2015 saw the largest quarter for venture capital (‘VC’) investments in eight years – since before the financial crisis. The VC investments focused around technology and services. Related to this, Q1 saw a significant number of transactions in the tech space, primarily due to higher valuations, higher multiples that lead smaller organizations as they were to be acquired by larger organizations. Top five targeted industries by value Q1 2015 Industry Percentage of value Utilities 20% Financials 14% Real Estate 13% Pharmaceuticals, Biote 11% Technology Hardware 7% Others 35% Top five total 65% Top five targeted industries by volume Q1 2015 Industry Percentage of value Materials 24% Real Estate 14% Industrials 13% Software & Services 10% Energy 8% Others 32% Top five total 68% Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 4 Q1 2015 What’s ahead? We expect inbound deals to rebound somewhat, primarily due to the ongoing weak Canadian dollar. We are already seeing an interest in going public transactions, with a number of Canadian companies having announcing their intent to conduct an IPO as this report was being prepared. Top 10 transactions Q1 2015, by value Announced date Target / Issuer Seller(s) Buyer(s) / Investor(s) Total transaction value US$mm, historical rate 1 13 Mar 2015 Fortum Distribution AB Fortum Oyj (HLSE:FUM1V) AP Fonden 3; Borealis Infrastructure Trust; AP Fonden 1; Folksam AB 6,947 2 09 Mar 2015 Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (TSX:VRX) — Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.; Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (ENXTAM:PSH) 3,300 3 4 22 Jan 2015 City National Corporation (NYSE:CYN) Eaton Vance Management Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY) 2,586 10 Mar 2015 Blue Coat Systems Inc. NB Alternatives; Teachers’ Private Capital; Prospect Bain Capital, LLC Capital Corporation (NasdaqGS:PSEC); Twin Bridge Capital Partners; Prospect Capital Management L.P.; NB Private Equity Partners Limited (ENXTAM:NBPE); Thoma Bravo, LLC 2,400 5 6 31 Mar 2015 ABP (Jersey) Limited Goldman Sachs Group, Merchant Banking Division; Infracapital Canada Pension Plan Investment Board; Hermes GPE 2,377 16 Feb 2015 Brit PLC (LSE:BRIT) Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE:APO); CVC Capital Partners Limited; JO Hambro Capital Management Limited; AP Achilles Holdings (EH-1), LLC; AP Selene Co-Invest, L.P.; AP Helios Co-Invest, L.P. FFHL Group Limited 1,918 7 8 30 Mar 2015 Fundtech Ltd. BServ, Inc. DH Corporation (TSX:DH) 1,250 09 Feb 2015 Rio Alto Mining Limited Aberdeen International Inc. (TSX:AAB); Van Eck Associates Corporation; JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited Tahoe Resources Inc. (TSX:THO) 1,110 9 10 04 Mar 2015 Eurostar Group Limited — Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec; Hermes GPE 893 17 Mar 2015 CSH Master Care USA Inc. Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX:CSH.UN) HCP, Inc. (NYSE:HCP); Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE:BKD) 849 Total Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 5 23,630 Q1 2015 Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 6 Q1 2015 Canadian IPO Survey - Q1, 2015: Turmoil and uncertainty take a toll on Canadian IPO market The market for initial public offerings in Canada teetered into 2015 under the influence of equity market confusion, depressed commodity prices and a slack Canadian economy that all combined to slow activity, the quarterly survey of Canadian markets by PwC has shown. The debut in March of the Aequitas NEO exchange is another welcome sign of innovation and potential change in the Canadian equity market landscape, Braunsteiner says. “We’re going to be watching the development of NEO with real interest to see what kind of new opportunities and new sectors it cultivates.” After a volatile final quarter in 2014, the IPO market failed to pick up speed in the first three months of this year. Just five new issues across all exchanges made it to the market in the first quarter, the PwC survey revealed, with total proceeds of more than $624 million – up from the meager $2.3 million in the first quarter of 2014 but below the $810 million from two issues in the final quarter of last year. One new mining issue reached the market in the first quarter (Montego Resources Inc. on the CSE) along with one oil & gas issue (San Angelo Oil Limited on the Venture). PwC has conducted its survey of the IPO market in Canada for more than 10 years. The reports are issued on a quarterly basis to provide information to the corporate sector, investors, the media and others that will help them put the market into better perspective. For the purposes of the survey, investment vehicles such as structured products are not considered IPOs because they do not represent new equity raised for operating companies. The largest issue of the quarter was the $621 million float of Fairfax India Holdings Corporation on the TSX. It was the only TSX activity in a quarter that saw just one issue on the TSX Venture and three on the CSE. To learn more about how PwC can help, contact Geoff Leverton or Dean Braunsteiner. “Despite the slowdown, the IPO market is still all about new opportunities, and we saw emerging trends and developments this quarter,” says Dean Braunsteiner, PwC national IPO leader. “The Fairfax issue, an investment fund focused on businesses in the Indian subcontinent, is an innovation that has found favour in a chaotic market otherwise fixated on falling oil prices and other headlines.” Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 7 Q1 2015 Forest, Paper & Packing Deals Insights Quarterly global M&A: Q1, 2015 90 days, 31 deals, US$12.3 billion1 M&A deal activity is off to a good start in 2015 highlighted by Rock-Tenn and MeadWestvaco combining to create a leading global provider of consumer and corrugated packaging. PwC is pleased to share with you our quarterly analysis of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the global forest, paper and packaging (FPP) industry for the first quarter (Q1) of 2015. Multi-year deals analysis Global FPP M&A Activity Overview 2012 2.0 2013 1.7 Global M&A activity in the FPP sector in Q1 2015 saw an increase in total deal value relative to the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2014. A total of 31 M&A deals were announced during Q1 2015 with a total value of US$12.3 billion and an average (median) deal size of approximately US$8 million. This compares to 34 deals in Q4 2014 with a total value of US$2.8 billion and an average (median) deal size of approximately US$36 million. Value 2.9 2014 3.3 2.0 8.0 3.2 The top five largest announced deals in Q1 2015 (based on deal value) accounted for US$12.0 billion or 98% of total deal value, with the largest deal accounting for the majority of the total. This is a significant increase from Q4 2014 where the top five largest transactions accounted for US$1.9 billion or 67% of total deal value. In addition, the top five largest announced deals in Q1 2015 were focused in the Americas and the EUMEA regions, whereas the top five largest deals in Q4 2014 were more evenly spread across all regions. Furthermore, a number of the top five deals in Q1 2015 involved strategic buyers as opposed to financial buyers. The table below presents the information with respect to the top five deals announced in Q1 2015. 5.3 1.3 2.8 .5 12.3 2015 0 5 10 15 20 Deal value (US$ billions) In comparison to the first quarter in 2013 and 2014, there was an increase in Q1 2015 in terms of total deal volume and a significant increase in terms of deal value. The graphs to the right provide a summary of deal activity by quarter for each of 2012, 2013, 2014 and Q1 2015. Notable deals 3.3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Volume 2012 34 2013 26 2014 27 2015 29 28 34 30 38 55 35 26 34 31 0 50 100 150 200 Deal volume (Number of global M&A deals) Source: S&P Capital IQ (Forest and Paper Products, Paper Packaging), PwC Analysis. 1 Based on deals where value was disclosed Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 8 Q1 2015 | 90 days, 31 deals Top five deals announced in Q1, 2015 Deal Value (US$ millions) Announced Date 11,355 01/26/2015 MeadWestvaco Corporation Rock-Tenn Company Americas 341 02/23/2015 Duropack GmbH DS Smith Plc EUMEA 122 02/06/2015 ITL Corp. Northwest Hardwoods, Inc. Americas 104 03/09/2015 Grupo CYBSA Smurfit Kappa Group plc Americas 65 1/26/2015 API Group plc CoSine Communications Inc. EUMEA Target Buyer Region Source: S&P Capital IQ (Forest and Paper Products, Paper Packaging), PwC Analysis Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 9 Q1 2015 Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 10 Q1 2015 | 90 days, 31 deals Deal activity continues to be strong in the Americas region Geographical distribution of deals There were many notable deals announced by strategic buyers in Q1 2015 in the Americas region, as follows: The distribution of announced deals in Q1 2015 (based on total deal value) was more geographically focused in the Americas region than was the case in Q4 2014. The below charts present the respective information for Q1 2015. • Rock-Tenn Company and MeadWestvaco Corporation merged to create a leading global provider of consumer and corrugated packaging with combined net sales of US$15.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of US$2.9 billion. Annual synergies from the transaction are estimated by the companies to be $300 million and will be achieved over three years; • Northwest Hardwoods Inc. acquired Industrial Timber & Lumber Company based in Beachwood, Ohio. Industrial Timber & Lumber sells over 200 million board feet of high quality hardwood lumber annually and has approximately 400 employees with operations in Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania; • Hokuetsu Kishu Paper Co., Ltd, a Japan-based pulp and paper company, announced that it will acquire controlling stakes in Alberta, Canada based pulp company Al-Pac Forest Products Inc. and its marketing unit, Al-Pac Pulp Sales Inc. from Mitsubishi Corp. and Oji Holdings Corp, however, terms of this transaction were not publicly disclosed; and • Smurfit Kappa Group acquired Grupo CYBSA, a non-integrated corrugated, folding cartons and flexible packaging manufacturer with operations in El Salvador and Costa Rica. These deals continue the trend of activity in the Americas region with 44 deals in the last four quarters (Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 respectively) with a total deal value of US$14.7 billion. In the Americas, there were 13 announced deals in the quarter with a total deal value of US$11.8 billion. The number of transactions decreased by three from the prior quarter, however, the total deal value was significantly higher than in Q4 2014 as a result of the Rock-Tenn Company and MeadWestvaco Corporation merger. In the EUMEA region, there were five deals with a total deal value of US$0.4 billion. Both the deal volume and total deal value are lower than in Q4 2014. There were 13 deals with a total deal value of US$0.1 billion in the Asia/Pacific region. Although the deal volume increased compared to Q4 2014, total deal value fell significantly. Trends and insights In the upcoming quarters we expect the major trends impacting the sector to continue to influence deal making. These trends include: • The strengthening of the U.S. economy • Expectations of slowing growth in China • Security of fibre supply Altogether, economic conditions and industry trends are driving opportunities for FPP companies to create shareholder value. We expect deal making to continue in the sector as companies look to gain strength in core markets. Distribution of Q1 2015 deals based on deal value and deal volume Geographic distribution – Deal value EUMEA Asia/Pacific Americas 3% Geographic distribution – Deal volume EUMEA Asia/Pacific Americas 1% 16% 42% 42% 96% Source: S&P Capital IQ (Forest and Paper Products, Paper Packaging), PwC Analysis. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 11 Q1 2015 Getting what you want for your business Preparation key to achieving value from a sale If you’re looking to sell your business, now might be the right time – especially if you’re well prepared. From experienced owner managers who have waited years to squeeze value out of their businesses, to private equity firms looking to divest business assets, a lot of sellers are looking to take advantage of the positive deals climate in Canada. “It’s a seller’s market,” says John Merenda, a director in PwC’s Consulting and Deals practice, “and with that come high valuations.” While the deals outlook for the remainder of 2015 is positive, sellers who put their businesses up for sale without any preparation are going to have a tough time achieving the value they think they deserve. That’s because the trend towards higher valuations, while a big draw for many sellers, can also be a major stumbling block when it comes to closing a deal. “A lot of deals aren’t getting done because valuations are too high,” explains Merenda. “If a business isn’t prepared, asking for big multiples isn’t realistic.” So what can owner managers and other business owners do to make sure they get the highest value out of a potential sale or divestiture? The answer is deceptively simple: Do your homework and be prepared. Plan for all aspects of the divestiture If you’re looking to sell, it helps to know what you want. That’s why it’s best to start any sales process with the development of a sale or divestiture project plan. This plan should clearly define the parameters of the business or assets you are planning to sell, outline your specific objectives for the sale, identify key value drivers that could attract buyer interest, and document any risks associated with the sale or divestiture process. The plan should also outline the implications of anything that might be left behind following the sale (e.g. stranded costs, restructuring requirements). It can help to engage a third party to assist with developing and managing your sale or divestiture project plan – an advisor with extensive experience in the sales process who can help look at your existing business using an objective and rational lens. In the case of owner-managers who have put a lifetime of sweat equity into a business, it can be difficult to evaluate the true strengths and weaknesses associated with a business. A third party advisor can walk you through the process and help you make the decisions needed to put your business’ best foot forward during a sale. Importantly, with ever increasing levels of cross border M&A, you’ll want an advisor that is part of a large worldwide network to help expose your deal to potential buyers in more geographic regions. There are a lot of buyers out there with capital. But, there’s also a lot of competition, if you’re looking for a premium valuation, you need to choose the right advisor and be ready. You need to be prepared for any questions a prospective buyer might have and make sure the information you are presenting is consistent and accurate. Conducting sell side due diligence can go a long way toward making sure you’re in a good position to attract and sustain value. John Merenda, Director, PwC’s Consulting and Deals Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 12 Q1 2015 | Getting what you want for your business Adding value in the sales process How your trusted advisor can help when selling your business As trusted advisors, below is a description of the specific actions we take in each of the three key phases of a business sale transaction: Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 (4-6 weeks) (12-16 weeks) (8-12 weeks) Transaction Preparation Transaction Execution Structuring and Closing • Work together with the company’s • Develop marketing materials and • Manage additional internal and management to plan and execute the transaction strategy • Identify revenue enhancement opportunities to potentially increase valuation: – Perform preliminary screening & profiling of potential buyers; – Assess expected value ranges for all parties involved – Provide preliminary tax planning and advice – Identify optimal transaction options • Work with you to prepare the Company in anticipation of a transaction that includes: – Preparation of financial information – Analysis/diligence of information - will prepare company for buyer due diligence including ensuring credibility of information and minimizing surprises in the diligence process – Organization structuring Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals provide other services that require minimal involvement on your part, so you can continue running your business at full capacity: – Prepare a no-names teaser to show to potential buyers (this will preserve your confidentiality) – Contact qualified potential purchasers on your behalf – Solicit expressions of interest in your business – Gauge potential market interest from confidential discussions with potential buyers – Coordinate the due diligence process external resources including lawyers, accountants and consultants • Collaborate with you to negotiate the sales purchase agreement to maximize the value of the business and your after tax proceeds • Work alongside management until the close of the transaction to ensure all of your needs are met and there is no money left on the table • Develop a competitive bidding process to maximize opportunities and create tension amongst potential buyers. • Act as the intermediary between the company and potential purchasers during the due diligence process. Control all communication to potential transacting parties. – This will reduce the company’s time commitment to the transaction allowing it to run the business as usual 13 Q1 2015 | Getting what you want for your business Prepare, prepare, prepare Position for the exit and execution When it comes to achieving the most value from a sale, sellers should consider undertaking preparatory sell-side due diligence prior to marketing the deal. This due diligence process can help you identify critical operational issues and concerns that you can address in advance in order to neutralize them as a negotiating point with buyers. For example, undertaking projects to improve operational efficiencies can positively affect earnings and working capital, while helping to lower back office costs. In addition to pre-sale planning, sellers also need to actively manage all aspects of the transition process. At the end of the day, the realization of deal value comes down to execution. By actively managing the execution of the deal, you can decrease delays and retain more value than if potential buyers dictate the process. Preparatory due diligence can also help a seller anticipate the requests and questions they might receive during the sale process so that they can respond more effectively. Sellers and their advisors can use the process to pressure test and validate forecast assumptions, identify key actions that would drive enhanced profits, and identify and address potential concerns related to synergies and standalone costs – activities that can inspire buyer confidence. Most importantly, it helps to avoid surprises in the sale process which can often impact deal valuation or timing. “The purpose of sell-side due diligence is not to avoid risks or weaknesses of the business,” says Damian Peluso, a partner in PwC’s Consulting and Deals practice, “but rather to be prepared to discuss these items and related mitigating factors with potential buyers.” In the end, addressing these issues up front will increase credibility with buyers. Preparing a business for sale should also include planning for the subsequent negotiation of the purchase agreement – from the scope of the transaction to price adjustment mechanisms, representations and warranties. By thinking about these terms before putting a company into play, sellers can make sure they are in the best position for negotiating a deal. Present tailored financial information for the transaction Any buyer is going to want to review detailed financial information about the business or assets up for sale. The challenge for sellers is recognizing that specific types of buyers may require different information. For example, it might be important to present both GAAP financial statements in addition to deal-based financial statements. If these statements are not consistent, a seller should act early to bridge any differences. It is critically important during a sales process to avoid presenting inconsistent information to buyers as any information that cannot be reconciled or bridged will erode buyer confidence and, therefore, the perceived value of a business. The critical activity during this phase is to move quickly from signing to close. This means sellers need to facilitate the rapid development of plans for transition of services, systems and back office operations to the divested business. These activities can take significant time during a sale – and the longer they take, the more likely it is that value will be eroded. By thinking proactively about exiting and deal execution, sellers can reduce the risks associated with the later phases of a deal, phases that unprepared sellers often treat as an afterthought. Maximize value…..Minimize time to close Whether you’re an owner manager looking to retire or a private equity firm looking to divest specific assets, you need to know what you want to get out of a sale in order to set your business up to achieve it. In today’s deals environment, realizing deal value can come down to understanding critical issues for buyers and being able to speak to potential downside risks and mitigating factors – not just to upsides and forecasts. “There are a lot of buyers out there with capital. But, there’s also a lot of competition,” says Merenda. “If you’re looking for a premium valuation, you need to choose the right advisor and be ready. You need to be prepared for any questions a prospective buyer might have and make sure the information you are presenting is consistent and accurate. Conducting sell side due diligence can go a long way toward making sure you’re in a good position to attract and sustain value.” The need to be consistent and reasonable also extends to any projections and forecasts a seller wants to present to buyers. Supporting forecasts with realistic assumptions and data can help with alleviating the concerns of potential buyers who might otherwise argue that highly optimistic forecasts are unfounded. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 14 Q1 2015 Supreme Court decision clarifies the application of efficiencies to merger reviews An economist’s view of the implications of Tervita Corp v. Canada (Commissioner of Competition) In a January 2015 decision that is likely to have significant implications for future Competition Act proceedings, the Supreme Court set out a procedure for the assessment of efficiency gains in merger review cases and the responsibility of the Commissioner of Competition to quantify consumer losses. The decision provides clarity regarding the relative balancing of consumer losses from lessened competition with efficiency gains benefitting merging parties. Background Section 96 of the Competition Act allows for the approval of mergers causing consumer losses due to lessening of competition in the event that efficiency gains (for example, economies of scale) offset these losses. The court noted the two methods have been employed to date to evaluate these efficiencies under Section 96: The total surplus standard The balancing weights standard An assessment is made by comparing the quantum of the deadweight loss to the incremental producer surplus from efficiency gains that may occur as a result of the merger (which effectively treats gains to consumers and gains to the merging parties equivalently). Deadweight losses in economic terms happen when the price of a product deviates from the equilibrium price of a fully competitive market. When two parties are merging there is a risk that the price will increase compared to the pre-merger price and as such will create a deadweight loss (or will increase it). Under this method, the deadweight loss needs to be quantified and contrasted with the benefits that the producer will gain from new efficiencies that will be created by the merger (incremental producer surplus). In this regard, we note that courts in Canada usually deal with the incremental producer surplus only as they relate to the merging parties (see the Superior Propane decision cited by the Supreme Court). In reality there could be what economists refer to as “secondary impacts”, where other producers of complementary products may also benefit from the merger through higher prices for their products. Secondary impacts are considered in the UK and EU and their introduction to Canada should be considered by competition lawyers representing merging parties. Permits the consideration of merging party benefits and consumer losses differently. This method involves the calculation of weights that will cause the positive impact on the merging parties and the negative impact on consumers to be equal, followed by a determination of whether these weightings are reasonable. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 15 Q1 2015 | Supreme Court decision clarifies the application of efficiencies to merger reviews Decision of the Court The Supreme Court decision sets out a two-step approach for the relative analysis of efficiencies and negative consumer impacts. The first step consists of a comparison of quantitative efficiencies and quantitative consumer impacts. If those quantitative efficiencies are greater than, or are likely to be greater than, quantitative negative impacts on consumers, the second step will be used to weigh qualitative evidence regarding each impact. In the Tervita case, the Supreme Court found that the merging parties were successful in quantitatively demonstrating some of their claimed efficiency gains, whereas the Commissioner of Competition failed to present quantitative evidence, causing the merger to be approved under Section 96. Specifically, without the calculation of price elasticities, it was impossible to calculate consumer loss (and deadweight loss), and so the Commissioner’s price evidence was assigned zero weight. As a result, despite the finding that the merger is likely to contribute to a substantial lessening of competition, the merger was permitted to proceed due to a lack of evidence regarding the quantitative impact of this outcome on consumers Implications for the future The emphasis placed on the quantification of efficiencies and deadweight losses in the Tervita case indicates that disputes on this subject are likely to continue in future merger review cases. In particular, the decision confirms the existence of a significant burden on the Commissioner of Competition to quantify consumer losses when the latter are used to deny merger approval. Merging parties should expect that in future cases, the Commissioner of Competition may produce evidence regarding the quantum of consumer loss. While the Tervita decision indicates that the quantification of elasticities is necessary for the Commissioner of Competition to quantify deadweight loss from a merger, we note that the quantification of elasticities is a very complex procedure in practice and often there is insufficient data to perform such a procedure. Competition authorities elsewhere have begun to rely on diversion Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals ratio analyses, which are simpler and can be based on consumer survey data. We expect that these types of analyses will become increasingly important in merger review proceedings given the burden of quantification being placed on the Commissioner of Competition. We recommend that lawyers for merging partners acquaint themselves with these types of analyses. We believe that in response to this decision the Commissioner of Competition may attempt to introduce concepts that would narrow the application or weighting of efficiencies. In this regard it is important to understand that guidelines issued by the European Union, US and UK authorities have significantly limited the consideration of efficiencies. In the European Union, the application of efficiencies is limited to instances that are beneficial to consumers. This places a substantial burden on merging parties to demonstrate that gains to consumers from a merger or acquisition are timely and sufficient to offset competition concerns. US guidelines require efficiencies to benefit consumers so as to be sufficient to reverse the merger’s potential to harm customers in the relevant market. The UK also requires efficiencies to produce consumer benefits, but differs from EU and US approaches in that it permits benefits experienced by consumers in other industries to be considered, although the interpretation of this distinction has not been clarified to date. All three jurisdictions tend to focus on efficiencies resulting in reductions to variable, and particularly marginal (short-term variable) costs, given that these costs are more likely to be passed on to consumers than reductions in fixed costs. Depending on the circumstances of a particular market, a long-term reduction in fixed costs could also be argued to constitute a benefit to consumers. In light of the above, we believe that as a result of the Tervita decision, merging parties need to take a proactive approach to claiming and quantifying efficiencies as well as industry-wide benefits. At the same time, the merging parties should be equipped to challenge deadweight loss quantifications. In addition, we believe that future merger review proceedings may involve a shift from assigning equal weights to deadweight loss on incremental producer surplus towards an approach that puts more weight on the former. 16 Q1 2015 Key aspects of efficiencies to consider Below is a list of key aspects that merging parties should consider when they embark on an evaluation of the magnitude and nature of efficiencies: What is the nature of the efficiency? Efficiencies can be generated from economies of scale, economies of scope, reduction in duplicated costs, reduction in supplier costs (for vertical mergers) and improved products. The nature of the efficiency will determine its impact on consumers and the market generally. For instance, if the efficiency relates to an economy of scale, does it involve economies in fixed or variable costs? Is there a limit up to which point these efficiencies will be achieved, after which further investment will be required for additional volumes? Will the efficiency improve customer experience by offering new or improved products or access to a wider range of products at a single location? Is the efficiency merger specific? To be considered merger specific, it must be demonstrated that the efficiency could not have been achieved without the merger, for instance through alternative agreements, the adoption of best practices or the licensing of technology. Can the efficiency be quantified? Are there applicable demand-side efficiencies as well? Efficiencies should be quantified in a robust manner while taking into account potential risks or uncertainties in their realization. Business plans and forecasts, reports of expert consultants, case studies of similar mergers and market analysis can all be employed in this process. Cost and supply function modelling using econometrics can be used to demonstrate scale advantages and the competitive dynamics of the market. Efficiencies expected as a result of future innovations may be more challenging to quantify, but in the event specific comparable technologies can be identified, an avoided license cost approach can be used. Benefits to consumers from a merger, for instance as a result of improved coordination of service delivery or benefits to service from economies of scale, can also be identified. However, these types of efficiencies are generally difficult to quantify and are therefore limited to the secondary qualitative stage of the two part process set out by the Supreme Court. How elastic is consumer demand for the relevant products? Consumer price elasticity will determine the degree to which the merged firm can exercise its market power to raise prices without resulting in a decline in revenues from offsetting quantity declines. This is a key determinant of negative consumer impacts from mergers. Consumer price elasticity, when coupled with an understanding of competitive dynamics in a market, can also be used to understand the likelihood that savings from efficiencies will be passed on to consumers. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 17 Q1 2015 Surrey Biofuels Facility: The first closed-loop organics P3 in North America PwC’s Infrastructure and Project Finance team was retained by the City of Surrey and Partnerships BC as financial adviser on the procurement of an organic waste biofuel processing facility under a design-build-finance-maintain (DBFM) model which will be partially funded by PPP Canada. PwC’s team was selected because of our recognized global expertise in the waste-to-energy sector combined with our local knowledge of P3 procurement in BC. Deals’ Infrastructure and Project Finance team is helping the City of Surrey become a world-class leader in household waste management. The City of Surrey, British Columbia (BC) is implementing the second phase of its Rethink Waste Collection Program, and its goal is to create a fully integrated model for organic waste management that maximizes the diversion of household organic waste from the landfill and that is both economically and environmentally sustainable. Our role included assisting the City with the competitive selection process, which included carrying out the financial evaluations of the bidders’ submissions and developing the legal contract, financial structure, payment and performance mechanism, financial models, and value-for-money analysis for the project. Once established, the facility will process the City’s organic waste into a 100% renewable fuel. This fuel will then be used to power Surrey’s waste collection vehicles, creating a sustainable closed-loop system. The facility will be situated on City-owned property. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 18 Q1 2015 Predictive financial modelling for oil and gas investments: How do you quantify project uncertainty? Investment structures in oil and gas take on different forms and the success of any project rests with multiple variables. But with investments associated with changing variables, one thing is clear – they often bring a certain level of inherent uncertainty. When evaluating investments, it’s important to build a quantitative perspective on key financial and operational risks (as well as upsides), and the impact they have on a project’s feasibility. Managing these uncertainties can act as a key differentiator in the competition for investment. Conversely, overlooking mitigation opportunities (such as hedging arrangements) due to a primitive risk understanding, can unnecessarily expose you to cash flow instability or overall return risks. Oil, gas, and NGL price volatility derives from both regional and global factors like economic growth, consumption behaviour, egress availability, geopolitics, and production technology; just to name a few. Having to predict inherently uncertain commodity pricing is just one of the major assumptions investors and operators need to make when confronting major decisions. Executives and investors are forced to deal with uncertainty around construction and approval delays, reservoir performance, exchange rates, regulatory costs (including carbon pricing), operating incidents (e.g. pipeline spill), interest rates, labour and production costs, and asset utilization. It can even cause unnecessary deal rejection. Sample risk considerations Impact on Answer the questions How can we protect ourselves through hedging from downside exposure to fluctuating prices? •Internal rate of return What is the probability of achieving an IRR less than my hurdle rate? Do various reserves scenarios impact our investment decision? • Project timing and life What is the impact of capital expenditure overruns and project delays? •Enterprise risk •Net present value of project •Covenants and capacity to repay debt •Free cash flow How can hedging impact my downside valuation risk? What is the probability of breaching project financing covenants? What are the required “break-even” forecast prices and reserves? How does interest rate volatility impact our financing structure? What is the likelihood that we’ll need to make a future equity injection? Can our capital structure withstand volatile prices? How does a major “black-swan” economic or operating incident undermine cash flow? What is the impact of future fluctuations in exchange rates? What role does egress uncertainty play in the business case for investment? Is an asset likely to have a high-cost operating incident? What effect could royalty scheme and carbon pricing changes have on investment economics? Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 19 Q1 2015 | Predictive financial modelling for oil and gas investments: How do you quantify project uncertainty? How we can help Modelling and simulation Our specialized team of Business Modelling advisors can help you assess the short- and long-term financial risk and provide the necessary insight for better decision making. We combine leading modelling practices and simulation techniques to develop robust project evaluation models and identify how fluctuations in critical forecast variables (pricing, reserves, operating and capital expenditures, regulations and others) are likely to affect your project. Accurate and insightful modelling of oil and gas projects requires proper pre-planning, a robust model structure and complexity management. Our team is comfortable working with a wide range of factors that drive complexity like reservoir modelling outputs, multilayered drilling plans, capital project schedules (such as LNG terminal construction), advanced commodity price simulations, and utilization uncertainty scenarios. Modelling diligence In addition, our simulation analysis tools can work in conjunction with your existing financial models, to provide an objective review. The added simulation capability gives senior executives easy-toimplement tools and outputs needed to make informed decisions and proactively mitigate potential risks. Consider the volatility of critical variables Price benchmarks Price (as % of base price) Exchange rates CAD/USD Base wages Average wage (per hour basis) 1.40 29 200% 1.30 27 150% 1.20 100% 1.10 50% 1.00 0% 0.90 -50% 0.80 250% WTI Brent NYMEX NG -100% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.70 Canada Alberta British Columbia 25 23 21 19 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ... and how they impact critical decision factors Sample forecast distribution of brent crude benchmark Probability ($) Sample probability distribution for project IRR Probability (%) Actual price data Price probability mean forecast 5% distribution tails 90% confidence level 150 125 7 6 5% 90% NPV sensitivity to volatility in various factors 5% 31.7% -14.7% Crude (280) oil price Reserves 5 100 4 Capital expenditures 75 3 Inflation 50 298 149 (200) 213 (160) 2 Royalties (60) 25 1 (52) 0 0 Transportation cost 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 20 72 (20) (300) (200) (100) 55 17 0 100 200 300 Q1 2015 Case study Simulating uncertainty Simply plugging in “most-likely” estimates for one or more uncertain factors into a simple 3-scenario model (of low, base, and high commodity price assumption), can lead to a myopic and distorted view of risk and project upside. Demonstrated in the below NPV probability diagram, we helped a client quantify the uncertainty in a Canadian LNG project through Monte-Carlo simulations using multiple input assumptions for uncertain factors, most important of which was the uncertain approval date. 10% 80% 145 -400 -200 0 200 10% 868 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Project NPV Case study Mitsubishi Corporation “PwC has the expertise to assist companies in making strategic inbound-investments into Canada’s energy industry. As a trusted advisor they have guided us on several significant steps regarding our company’s recent Canadian investments. This includes assisting us in tackling a variety of issues we have faced related to our energy investments, navigating its complex accounting, and understanding Canadian tax compliance requirements. PwC is focused on supporting us with prudent advice for these investments, and our engagements with PwC provide us with confidence that we’ll continue to succeed with the execution of our strategy into the future.” – Shinya Miyazaki, CEO, Diamond Gas Management Canada Ltd. (a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation) Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 21 Q1 2015 PwC strengthens forensic technology practice with acquisition of Platinum Legal Group We’re proud to have acquired the business of Platinum Legal Group Talk to our Forensic Technology Services team about eDiscovery, litigation support, and managing electronic evidence Purchase enhances litigation support and eDiscovery service offerings In March, 2015, PwC Canada acquired Platinum Legal Group (PLG), one of Canada’s leading electronic discovery and litigation support firms. Led by William Platt, PLG has joined PwC’s Toronto office and will continue servicing clients in Calgary, Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver. Platinum Legal Group specializes in electronic evidence management in litigation, competition and investigative matters. This acquisition strengthens PwC’s Forensic Technology Service capabilities in the areas of discovery, data recovery, data analysis, and review of electronic data. Currently, PwC offers a full complement of services from the PwC Forensic Lab including: Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals discovery readiness assessment, investigative analytics, cyber and social network investigations, digital forensics, eDiscovery, and evidence management services. “We are pleased to welcome Platinum Legal Group to our growing forensics practice,” says Lori-Ann Beausoleil, PwC Canada’s National Forensics Co-Leader. “Their expertise compliments our experience in data acquisition and analysis allowing us to expand our evidence management and e-discovery offering.” “Combining PLG’s 13+ years of experience in eDiscovery and litigation support with PwC’s forensics presence will allow us to increase service offerings across Canada,” says William Platt, PwC Partner, eDiscovery Litigation Support. “I am excited to have joined a team of leaders and innovators in electronic evidence management.” 22 Q1 2015 Meet PwC’s Canadian Deals industry team leaders When it comes to helping you achieve deal success — we're industry focused! Meet our Deals industry team leaders www.pwc.com/ca/ID When it comes to helping you achieve deal success—we’re industry focused Whether you’re considering raising capital, making an acquisition, a divestiture or entering into a strategic alliance, one thing is certain: to achieve deal success today, you need deep industry experience and insights. Each of our industry focused teams brings you fresh perspectives gained through hands-on deal-making experience in their respective sectors—in Canada and globally. Our approach helps you to source and execute deals faster and on more favorable terms, while minimizing business disruption and risk. We welcome you to get in touch with any of our Deals industry team leaders profiled on www.pwc.com/ca/ID to discuss your unique needs. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 23 Q1 2015 | PwC Deals Practice Achieving deal success— from concept to close and beyond To provide feedback on this publication or to subscribe, please email: [email protected] The PwC Deals team helps clients raise capital and complete acquisitions, divestitures, or strategic alliances. We add value across the entire deal spectrum, from concept to close and beyond, by: • developing your deal strategy; • managing your go-to-market strategy; • presenting your deal to the right targets, partners and capital providers, across the globe; • supporting your deal with due diligence, including fraud and/or anti-bribery and corruption assessments, valuation, integration and tax advisory services; and • implementing changes to deliver deal synergies. Our Canadian Deals team is part of the world’s largest Transaction Advisory practice1. Our approach helps clients to source and execute deals faster and on more favourable terms, while minimizing business disruption and risk. We look forward to your call. Nicolas Marcoux Canadian Deals Leader [email protected] +1 514 205 5302 ca.linkedin.com/in/nicolasmarcouxpwc/en 1 Source: Kennedy; “Business Advisory Services Marketplace 2012”; © BNA Subsidiaries, LLC. Reproduced under license. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 24 Q3 2014 PwC Deals Capital Markets Flash blog Your source for unique Canadian M&A insights Our Capital Markets Flash blog features facts, figures, and our unique industry perspectives on Canadian and global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and related issues. It’s all wrapped up in a more convenient to use digital format that’s still completely focused on helping you to achieve deal success—from concept to close, and beyond. www.pwc.com/ca/CMFblog Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 25 Q3 2014 Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 26 Q3 2014 | Canadian contacts Contact us Your PwC Deals Leadership Team Nicolas Marcoux* Canadian Deals Leader Steven Henderson Forensic Services Helen Mallovy Hicks GTA Corporate Finance PricewaterhouseCoopers Corporate Finance Inc [email protected] +1 416 941 8328 [email protected] +1 416 814 5739 Jim McGuigan* British Columbia Miriam Pozza Quebec Lori-Ann Beausoleil Forensic Services Regulatory Compliance, Risk and Controls [email protected] +1 604 806 7594 [email protected] +1 514 205 5286 [email protected] +1 416 687 8617 Johanne Mullen Infrastructure and Project Finance Dominic Ricketts Transaction Services [email protected] +1 514 205 5080 [email protected] +1 416 687 8408 David Planques Corporate Advisory and Restructuring Clinton Roberts Alberta [email protected] +1 514 205 5302 Ken Goodwin Valuations, Modelling and Disputes [email protected] +1 416 814 5760 [email protected] +1 416 815 5275 [email protected] +1 403 509 7307 Corporate finance services in the US are provided through PricewaterhouseCoopers Corporate Finance LLC (“PwC CF”). PwC CF is owned by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a member firm of the PricewaterhouseCoopers Network, and is a member of FINRA and SIPC. PwC CF is not engaged in the practice of public accountancy. US persons, please contact the FINRA registered representatives noted with an *. Capital Markets Flash | www.pwc.com/ca/deals 27 Q1 2015 All dollar amounts are expressed in US dollars, unless otherwise noted. All transaction values expressed in this document are generally based on S&P Capital IQ’s Total Transaction Value (in US$mm, historical rate), defined as follows: • Total Transaction Value: Equal to Total Consideration to Shareholders + Total Other Consideration + Total Deferred/Earnout/Contingent Payments + Total Rights/Warrants/Options + Cash and Short Term Investments + Net Assumed Liabilities + Adjustment Size. In addition to the footnotes, sources may include: The Associated Press, Barrons, Bloomberg, BMO Capital Markets, Business Standard,Canada Stockwatch, S&P Capital IQ, CIBC, CIBC World Markets, Conference Board of Canada, The Economist, Eurasia Group, The Financial Post, The Financial Times, FT Alphaville, The Globe and Mail, Goldman Sachs, International Monetary Fund, International Trade Suite, Marketwatch, McKinsey Quarterly, Moodys, mergermarket, National Bank, National Post, New York Times, PR Newswire, RBC Capital Markets, Reuters Loan Connector, S&P LCD, Scotiabank, Seeking Alpha, Standard & Poors, Stikeman Elliot, TD Newcrest, TD Securities, TMX Group, The TMX MiG Report, Toronto Dominion Bank, Torys LLP, United Nations, VC Circle, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, William Blair & Company LLC, Zero Hedge, Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership, Globalventures Magazine, and GlobeAdvisor.com. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, PricewaterhouseCoopers Corporate Finance Inc. and other member firms of the PwC Network (“PwC”) do not make or imply any representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy, or completeness of the information contained in this document. This document is intended for informational purposes only. The views and opinions expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of PwC or its employees. © 2015 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario limited liability partnership. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the Canadian member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. 2147-96 0515