The Missile Threat and Plans for Ballistic Missiles Defense
Forum on The Missile Threat and Plans for Ballistic Missiles Defense: Technology, Strategic Stability and Impact on Global Security Parliament, Library Room Il Refettorio Società Italiana per la Organizzazione Internazionale - SIOI Rome, Italy, 18-19 January 2001 organized by Landau Network Centro Volta - LNCV Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs supported by General Direction for Cultural Promotion and Cooperation of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the cooperation of Italian Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs Comitato di Parlamentari per l'Innovazione Tecnologica - COPIT Società Italiana per la Organizzazione Internazionale - SIOI Unione Scienziati per il Disarmo - USPID Concern is growing about the spread of ballistic missiles in several areas of the world. Medium and long range ballistic missiles can be used as delivery vehicles for various types of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological). The threat is changing in time, new problems arise even though, due to the USRussia disarmament process, the global ballistic missile threat is smaller than in the mid-1980s. Now 33 countries possess ballistic missiles, besides the five recognized nuclearweapon states. Some of these countries (27) have only missiles with range under 1,000 kilometers; 6 nations have medium-range missiles over 1000-km range: Israel, Saudi Arabia, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran; the last four of these countries also have active programs for the development of missile with range of the order of 2500-3000: India, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran. Efforts to contain the spread of ballistic missiles are now limited to voluntary agreements such as the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which, so far, has a limited number of members. In the US large programs have been proposed to build Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) on a nation-wide level (NMD, National Missile Defense) as well as on a tactical level (TMD, Theater Missile Defense). At the moment very serious doubts exist about the effectiveness, the technical feasibility and the actual costs of these projects. But altogether the basic question is whether these BMD plans are in any way the right answer to the problem. Furthermore, to build a NMD system, the US must either get Russian agreement to modify the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, a cornerstone of strategic stability, or withdraw from it. Irrespectively of the actual verifiable effectiveness of the BMD systems, the US plans have so far succeeded in antagonizing China, which feels that the deterrent power of its limited intercontinental ballistic missile fleet may be diminished by a US NMD. Moreover China sees a possible deployment of tactical missiles defenses in North East Asia (as in Japan or Taiwan) as something that will alter the regional equilibrium to her detriment. If China decides to increase the number of ballistic missiles as a response to BMD plans, Japan may be upset, India may feel the need to take action to face an increased Chinese strength of nuclear forces and Pakistan may in turn react to India's decisions. In short a new arms race may arise out of BMD deployments. Russia has been reassured by the US that the new NMD plans are not bound to protect the US against a large missile attack, but the chain of perceptions (and misperceptions) may very well in the future slow down sensibly Russian (and US) efforts towards nuclear disarmament. Europe too will have to take some decisions. To cooperate actively with the US in the BMD efforts will be costly, may antagonize other countries and may be technically ineffective. The countries that have or may have in the future ballistic missiles able to reach the European soil are, in particular, all the countries in the Middle East and it is against these countries that any hypothetical European BMD system should work. If on the contrary the European countries decide not to cooperate with the US in the development of defensive systems, then some of the old doubts of "decoupling" may be resurrected, not to mention the problems that may result in the transatlantic alliance. Hence the new proposed BMD systems present the same old dilemmas: risks for strategic stability, risks of new arms races, new antagonisms and political tensions in the international arena. So the question of technical feasibility is more important than ever. It will not be wise to spend large amount of money to propose systems that will not be able to perform as hoped for, but that may nevertheless increase the political tension. Goals of the Forum The main aim of the Rome Forum will be to provide an opportunity for an informal discussion and a critical analysis among international experts on geopolitical, security, scientific and technological aspects. In particular, the Forum will have to discuss the following issues: if the answer to the spread of ballistic missiles is not given by the new BMD-NMD plans, then what will be the right answer? A search for new defensive technologies? A stricter form of international control of the spread of ballistic missiles? A different type of cooperation and accommodation with the countries which actively export ballistic missiles or which aim at building longer range ballistic missiles? Or a combination of all of the above answers? We have some examples of countries possessing nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction and planning to develop ballistic missiles who abandoned these plans. One example is South Africa. What can we learn from these experiences? These and related questions will be discussed in the Rome meeting of January 2001 and a particular emphasis will be given to the impact that US NMD might have on the stability of the international strategic environment, particularly at the European level, and on NATO cohesion. Program Wednesday, January 17th 2001 Arrival of participants 20:00 Dinner at Restaurant L'Orso '80, Via dell'Orso, 33, Rome Thursday, January 18 th 2001 Morning: Società Italiana per la Organizzazione Internazionale, Piazza di San Marco, 51 - 00186 Roma 9:30 - 10:00 Opening and Welcoming addresses • • • • • 10:00 - 11:15 G. Migone, Chairman, Italian Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs G. Facco-Bonetti, Director, Cultural Promotion and Cooperation, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs M. Pensa, General Direction for Political Affairs, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs U. La Rocca, President SIOI M. Martellini, Secretary General, LNCV, USPID and Università dell'Insubria Session I - The Ballistic Missile Threat • • • • The 1999 US National Intelligence estimate of the Ballistic Missile Threat. Accidental, unauthorized or erroneous launch. The threat from emerging missile powers. Weapons of Mass destruction available to emerging missile powers. Speakers include: • • J. Cirincione, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, USA D. Wright, Massachusetts Institute of Tecnology (MIT) and Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, USA 11:15 - 11:30 Coffee Break 11:30 - 13:00 Session II - Technology of BMD Systems. The US NMD Program • • BMD systems: National Missile Defense (NMD) and Tactical Missile Defense (TMD) The NMD program: architecture, future evolution and costs • Counter-measures to NMD systems Speakers include: • • • • • • V. Camporini, Italian Airforce S. Miller, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA G. Lewis, Massachusetts Institute of Tecnology (MIT), Cambridge, USA G. Neuneck, Senior Fellow, IFSH, Hamburg T. Rauf, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Monterey, USA R. Zadra, NATO Bruxelles 13:00 - 14:00 Lunch 14:30 Transfer to the Parliament (walking distance) Afternoon: Parliament, Library Room Il Refettorio, Via del Seminario 76 (Simultaneous translation English-Italian will be provided) 15:00 - 16:30 General Discussion. The Structure and the Consequences of the Proposed Systems for the Defense Against Ballistic Missiles: • • • • The Ballistic Missile Threat BMD Systems and the US NMD Program Effects of NMD on Arms Control and Strategic Stability Alternatives to NMD Systems Chairmen: • • A. Occhetto, Chairman, Italian Chamber of Deputies Committee on Foreign Affairs V. Spini, Chairman, Italian Chamber of Deputies Defense Committee Welcoming Addresses: • • • M. Tassone, Italian Chamber of Deputies S. Cacciaguerra, General Direction for Cultural Promotion and Cooperation, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs A. D'Alessio, COPIT Speakers include: • • • Y.-T. Chun, The National Defense Committee, The National Assembly, Seoul, Republic of Korea P. Cotta-Ramusino, USPID, LNCV and Università degli Studi di Milano T. Delpech, CEA, Paris, France • • • • • • L. Fischer, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Washington DC, USA Fu Cong, Counselor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Beijing, P. R. China Y. Kapralov, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia, M. K. Savidge, House of Commons, London, U.K. S. Silvestri, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Roma U. Zapf, Deutscher Bundestag, Berlin, Germany 16:30 - 17:00 Break 17:00 - 19:00 Continuation. 20:00 Dinner at Restaurant Primoli, Via dei Soldati 22-23, Rome Friday, January 19 th 2001 Società Italiana per la Organizzazione Internazionale, Piazza di San Marco, 51 - 00186 Roma 9:30 - 11:00 Session III - Effects of NMD on Arms Control and Strategic Stability</FONT< TD> • • • • • NMD and the ABM Treaty The strategic impact of NMD The effect of NMD on proliferation NATO Allies and NMD Europe and BMD Speakers include: • • • • • • • • • • • • R. A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, Hawaii C. Grand, Ministère de la Dèfense, Délégation aux Affaires Stratégiques, France G. Harigel, CERN, Geneva, Switzerland H. Horsten, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Berlin, Germany K. Kikuyama, Japan Atomic Industrial Forum K. Koster, PENN Project on European Non-Proliferation, Netherlands A. Saveliev, Institute for World Economics and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia P. Schulte, Ministry of Defence, London, U.K. D. Shen, Fudan University, Shanghai , P.R. China S. Silvestri, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Roma J. P. Stroot, CERN, Geneva, Switzerland A. Varshavsky, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 11:00 - 11:15 Coffee Break 11:15 - 13:15 Session III - Continuation. </TD< TR> 13:15 - 14:30 Lunch 14:30 - 15:30 Session IV - Alternatives to NMD Systems</FONT< TD> • • • The MTCR Arms control and export controls Cooperative programs Speakers include: • • • I. Kenyon, Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, University of Southampton V. I. Rybachenkov, Department for Security Affairs and Disarmament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Moscow T. Suzuki, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo, Japan </FONT< TD> 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break 16:00 - 18:30 Session V - Conclusions • • General discussion Possible future actions </FONT< TD> 20:00 Dinner at Restaurant Primoli, Via dei Soldati 22-23, Rome List of participants Participants will contribute on their personal capacity. The official language is English. Simultaneous translation English/Italian will be provided for Thursday afternoon. Participants will be scientists, technical experts, experts of international relations and policy makers. Each presentation should not exceed 10 minutes (exceptions could be made for selected technical presentations.) All participants are invited to bring a written contribution. An electronic version should also be sent in advance to make copies for distribution. Proceedings will be collected, published in a volume and made available on the Web site http://www.mi.infn.it/~landnet. The proceedings and the documents of the Forum will be distributed to the participants and to various Governmental and Non-Governmental Institutions.